How Will Williams-Sonoma Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Williams-Sonoma (NYSE:WSM) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, May 21, 2026. The company has $20 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $7.8 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $1.4 Bil in operating profits and net income of $1.1 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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Williams-Sonoma’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 17 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 7 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 59% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 50% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 10 positive returns = 7.8%, and median of the 7 negative returns = -3.5%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 3/18/2026 | 1.1% | -0.6% | 5.1% |
| 11/19/2025 | -3.4% | -0.6% | 5.6% |
| 8/27/2025 | -2.9% | -2.9% | 1.6% |
| 3/19/2025 | -3.5% | -1.8% | -20.1% |
| 11/20/2024 | 27.5% | 26.8% | 30.9% |
| 8/22/2024 | -9.3% | -6.1% | 3.4% |
| 5/22/2024 | -11.0% | -10.1% | -3.5% |
| 3/13/2024 | 17.8% | 21.7% | 22.2% |
| 11/16/2023 | 6.2% | 12.4% | 26.9% |
| 8/23/2023 | 13.5% | 13.8% | 12.9% |
| 3/16/2023 | 1.1% | 0.3% | -0.1% |
| 11/17/2022 | -6.2% | -6.1% | -11.4% |
| 8/24/2022 | 2.2% | -8.4% | -22.7% |
| 5/25/2022 | 13.1% | 13.0% | 6.4% |
| 3/16/2022 | 5.4% | -2.3% | -2.3% |
| 8/25/2021 | 9.3% | 7.3% | 12.0% |
| 5/26/2021 | -0.1% | -4.1% | -7.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 7 | 10 |
| # Negative | 7 | 10 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 7.8% | 13.0% | 9.2% |
| Median Negative | -3.5% | -3.5% | -7.0% |
| Max Positive | 27.5% | 26.8% | 30.9% |
| Max Negative | -11.0% | -10.1% | -22.7% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -11.6% | -8.6% | 28.2% |
| 3Y History | -28.1% | -18.9% | 10.1% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Williams-Sonoma stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Williams-Sonoma. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSM Earnings Dates | WSM | ARHS | W | ETD |
| 3/18/2026 | 1.1% | -19.3% | -3.5% | N/A* |
| 11/19/2025 | -3.4% | -5.5% | -8.1% | -16.3% |
| 8/27/2025 | -2.9% | 0.0% | 1.4% | 4.8% |
| 3/19/2025 | -3.5% | -16.0% | -31.2% | N/A* |
| 11/20/2024 | 27.5% | 0.1% | 5.6% | -0.1% |
| 8/22/2024 | -9.3% | -2.5% | -16.5% | -1.1% |
| 5/22/2024 | -11.0% | N/A* | 6.7% | -13.1% |
| 3/13/2024 | 17.8% | 11.5% | 19.2% | N/A* |
| 11/16/2023 | 6.2% | 6.2% | 3.9% | -1.9% |
| 8/23/2023 | 13.5% | -21.6% | -20.4% | 5.3% |
| 3/16/2023 | 1.1% | -12.3% | -15.2% | N/A* |
| 11/17/2022 | -6.2% | -6.6% | -9.0% | 30.0% |
| 8/24/2022 | 2.2% | 12.7% | -12.3% | 10.8% |
| 5/25/2022 | 13.1% | N/A* | N/A* | -15.7% |
| 3/16/2022 | 5.4% | N/A* | -6.2% | N/A* |
| 8/25/2021 | 9.3% | N/A* | 4.5% | N/A* |
| CORRELATION | 39.1% | -1.1% | -1.4% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after WSM
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