Warby Parker Stock To $15?
Warby Parker (WRBY) stock has fallen by 22.3% in less than a month, from $27.68 on 9/29/2025 to $21.50 now. What comes next? As it turns out, the stock could fall even more. The current correction, when put in context of our Unattractive opinion of the stock, suggest possibility of further downside. A price of $15 is not out of question, especially considering that the stock has seen this level in the last 5 years.
So should you wait before buying this dip? Perhaps. There is no perfect way to time the dips. Nevertheless, here is another perspective on WRBY stock to help you make the decision. The stock has returned (median) -21% in one year, and 21% as peak return following sharp dips (>30% in 30 days) historically. For quick background, WRBY provides eyewear products including eyeglasses, sunglasses, light-responsive and blue-light-filtering lenses, and contact lenses, with 160 retail stores across the United States and Canada.
For details on stock fundamentals and assessment: Read Buy or Sell Warby Parker Stock to see the full picture.
A single stock can be risky, but there is a huge value to a broader, diversified approach. Should you buy one stock you like or build a portfolio designed to win across cycles? Our numbers show that the Trefis High Quality Portfolio has turned stock-picking uncertainty into market-beating consistency. This portfolio is incorporated in the asset allocation strategy of Empirical Asset Management — a Boston area wealth manager and Trefis partner — whose asset allocation framework yielded positive returns during the 2008-09 period when the S&P lost more than 40%.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | -13.4% |
| 3M | -8.1% |
| 6M | -15.2% |
| 12M | -20.8% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
WRBY had 4 events since 1/1/2010 where the dip threshold of -30% within 30 days was triggered
- 21% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 103 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -39% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | WRBY Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | WRBY | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | -21% | 21% | -39% | 103 | ||||
| 3182025 | -35% | -6% | 19% | 60% | -21% | 188 | ||
| 3092023 | -31% | -2% | 4% | 31% | -16% | 355 | ||
| 5052022 | -35% | -7% | -45% | 0% | -56% | 0 | ||
| 1142022 | -31% | 2% | -53% | 11% | -67% | 18 | ||
Warby Parker Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 14.1% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 12.8% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 14.2% | Pass |
Dip buying, while attractive, needs to be evaluated carefully from multiple angles. Such multi-factor analysis is exactly how we construct the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.