CSX Stock Surges 9.5% With 8-day Spree On Analyst Target Hikes
CSX (CSX) – a rail-based freight transportation service across eastern U.S. – hit a 8-day winning streak, with cumulative gains over this period amounting to 9.5%. The company’s market cap has surged by about $6.7 Bil over the last 8 days and currently stands at $77 Bil.
The stock has YTD (year-to-date) return of 14.0% compared to 1.4% for S&P 500. This calls for a re-evaluation of the stock’s valuation to find out whether this is an opportunity or a trap.
What Triggered The Rally?
[1] Analyst Price Target Upgrades
- Rothschild & Co raised price target to $42.50 from $39.00
- Argus lifted its target to $42 and Raymond James to $41
- Impact: Sustained institutional buying, Stock hit a new 52-week high
[2] Positive 2026 Full-Year Guidance
- Forecast of 200-300 basis points of operating margin expansion
- Guidance for low single-digit revenue growth in 2026
- Impact: Offset weaker than expected Q4 earnings, Increased investor confidence in future profitability
Opportunity or Trap?
Below is our take on valuation.
There are a few things to fear in CSX stock given its overall Weak operating performance and financial condition. But keeping in mind its Very High valuation, we think that the stock is Very Unattractive (For details, see Buy or Sell CSX).
But here is the real interesting point.
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Returns vs S&P 500
The following table summarizes the return for CSX stock vs. the S&P 500 index over different periods, including the current streak:
| Return Period | CSX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1D | 1.1% | -0.0% |
| 8D (Current Streak) | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 1M (21D) | 17.4% | -0.5% |
| 3M (63D) | 18.1% | 1.6% |
| YTD 2026 | 14.0% | 1.4% |
| 2025 | 14.1% | 16.4% |
| 2024 | -5.6% | 23.3% |
| 2023 | 13.5% | 24.2% |
However, big gains can follow sharp reversals – but how has CSX behaved after prior drops? See CSX Dip Buyer Analysis to learn more.
Gains and Losses Streaks: S&P 500 Constituents
There are currently 101 S&P constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive gains and 52 constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive losses.
| Consecutive Days | # of Gainers | # of Losers |
|---|---|---|
| 3D | 23 | 40 |
| 4D | 56 | 5 |
| 5D | 9 | 3 |
| 6D | 3 | 1 |
| 7D or more | 10 | 3 |
| Total >=3 D | 101 | 52 |
Key Financials for CSX (CSX)
Last 2 Fiscal Years:
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $14.7 Bil | $14.5 Bil |
| Operating Income | $5.5 Bil | $5.4 Bil |
| Net Income | $3.7 Bil | $3.5 Bil |
Last 2 Fiscal Quarters:
| Metric | 2025 FQ2 | 2025 FQ3 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $3.6 Bil | $3.6 Bil |
| Operating Income | $1.3 Bil | $1.3 Bil |
| Net Income | $829.0 Mil | $694.0 Mil |
While CSX stock looks attractive given its winning streak, investing in a single stock without detailed, thorough analysis can be risky. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.