WM Stock Surges 5.9% With A 6-day Winning Spree On UBS Upgrade To $260
Waste Management (WM) – a waste management and landfill gas-to-energy service provider – hit 6-day winning streak, with cumulative gains over this period amounting to a 5.9%. The company market cap has surged by about $5.2 Bil over the last 6 days, and currently stands at $92 Bil.
The stock has YTD (year-to-date) return of 4.2% compared to 1% for S&P 500. This calls for a re-evaluation of the stock’s valuation to find out whether this is an opportunity, or a trap.
What Triggered The Rally?
[1] UBS Upgrade to Buy
- Price target raised to $260 from $225
- Anticipation of increased capital returns in 2026
- Impact: Positive price momentum, Increased investor confidence
[2] Positive Analyst Actions
- Bernstein maintained ‘Outperform’ and raised price target to $260
- Barclays maintained ‘Overweight’ rating
- Impact: Strengthened market sentiment, Increased institutional interest
Opportunity or Trap?
Below is our take on valuation.
There are only a couple of things to fear in WM stock given its overall Moderate operating performance and financial condition. Hence, together with its High valuation, this makes the stock look Risky (For details, see Buy or Sell WM).
But here is the real interesting point.
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Returns vs S&P 500
The following table summarizes the return for WM stock vs. the S&P 500 index over different periods, including the current streak:
| Return Period | WM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1D | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| 6D (Current Streak) | 5.9% | -0.7% |
| 1M (21D) | 5.9% | 1.2% |
| 3M (63D) | 7.0% | 2.6% |
| YTD 2026 | 4.2% | 1.0% |
| 2025 | 10.5% | 16.4% |
| 2024 | 14.3% | 23.3% |
| 2023 | 16.2% | 24.2% |
Gains and Losses Streaks: S&P 500 Constituents
There are currently 43 S&P constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive gains and 29 constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive losses.
| Consecutive Days | # of Gainers | # of Losers |
|---|---|---|
| 3D | 29 | 16 |
| 4D | 7 | 5 |
| 5D | 2 | 6 |
| 6D | 2 | 2 |
| 7D or more | 3 | 0 |
| Total >=3 D | 43 | 29 |
Key Financials for Waste Management (WM)
Last 2 Fiscal Years:
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $20.4 Bil | $22.1 Bil |
| Operating Income | $3.8 Bil | $4.1 Bil |
| Net Income | $2.3 Bil | $2.7 Bil |
Last 2 Fiscal Quarters:
| Metric | 2025 FQ2 | 2025 FQ3 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $6.4 Bil | $6.4 Bil |
| Operating Income | $1.2 Bil | $1.2 Bil |
| Net Income | $726.0 Mil | $603.0 Mil |
While WM stock looks attractive given its winning streak, investing in a single stock without detailed, thorough analysis can be risky. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.