Rigetti Computing Stock Analysis: The Upside Case

Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) has been riding high, up around 5% on January 22, after the company scored an $8.4 million order from India’s C-DAC for a 108-qubit quantum system, and the market loved it. B. Riley also upgraded the stock to a “Buy” rating. RGTI stock is already up 85% over the past twelve months, so momentum’s clearly building. But what can propel the stock to double from here to hit $50 in the next 12-18 months?

Before we walk through what would need to happen, if you seek an upside with less volatility than holding an individual stock, consider the High Quality Portfolio. It has comfortably outperformed its benchmark—a combination of the S&P 500, Russell, and S&P MidCap indexes—and has achieved returns exceeding 105% since its inception. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics. Separately, see – The Binary Bet: QuantumScape’s Path To Doubling.

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What Could Push RGTI Stock Higher

There are a few real catalysts that could get RGTI to $50 by late 2027, especially given their recent progress—like achieving near 99.5% fidelity on their 36-qubit systems and mapping out a path to 1,000+ qubits.

1. The order pipeline matters most right now. That C-DAC deal isn’t just about the money—it’s scheduled to deploy in Bengaluru in the second half of 2026, which opens the door to India’s supercomputing market. If they can land follow-on contracts from governments or big enterprises (similar to their recent military and AI wins), we could see revenue visibility double heading into 2026-27.
2. Then there’s the tech itself. If Rigetti can consistently hit 100+ qubit fidelity and scale up their systems by mid-2026, they’d genuinely pull ahead of competitors. That kind of progress attracts the partnerships they need—like their joint venture with Quanta Computer, which came with a $100 million commitment. Success here would justify those sky-high valuations we’re seeing.
3. Wall Street’s starting to take notice, too. B. Riley recently put out a Buy rating with a $35 target, and Wedbush went to $40. When analyst consensus starts creeping past $50 based on 2026 estimate beats, you often get FOMO buying that accelerates the move.
4. They’ve also got serious cash on hand—$600 million after their 2025 raises. That means they can fund R&D and push toward error-corrected prototypes without painful dilution. If they nail that, enterprise adoption in AI and drug discovery could actually materialize.
5. And don’t underestimate sector momentum. Quantum computing comes with hype cycles, and if peers like IonQ stumble, Rigetti gets positioned as the pure-play leader. That kind of narrative can inflate multiples fast, especially as revenue climbs in the coming quarters.

But Here’s Where It Gets Tricky

This isn’t a sure thing—not even close. Quantum computing is still wildly speculative.

• Execution risk is real. If they slip on scaling those qubits or miss deadlines on the C-DAC deployment, trust evaporates quickly. Rigetti has a history of delays, so the market won’t give them much rope if things go sideways.
• Competition is brutal. Google and IBM are pouring resources into quantum, and they’ve got deeper pockets. Any dilutive equity raises to fund growth could cap the upside here.
• Rigetti’s fundamentals are… rough. We’re talking negative margins around -4,700%. We agree there’s not much to read in the current financials, and the quantum story is about future potential. Still, any weak quarterly report or macro volatility, and you could see sharp selloffs—we’ve already seen post-announcement dips even on good news.

The Verdict

Look, Rigetti has the pieces in place for a potential 2x move if the orders keep coming and the technology delivers. But this is high-risk, high-reward quantum rocket fuel—not for investors who can’t stomach massive downturns. How massive are we talking here? Let’s see – During the 2022 inflation shock market correction, the S&P 500 index fell 25% from its peak, but RGTI stock plunged a whopping 96%. The overall story is compelling, and the path to $50 exists, but not without risks.

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