Inspire Medical Systems Stock Drop Looks Sharp, But How Deep Can It Go?
Inspire Medical Systems (INSP) stock is down 16.0% in a day. The recent slide reflects renewed concerns around the removal of a key billing code for sleep apnea therapy, but sharp drops like this often raise a tougher question: is the weakness temporary, or a sign of deeper cracks in the story?
Before judging its downturn reslience, let’s look at where Inspire Medical Systems stands today.
- Size: Inspire Medical Systems is a $2.4 Bil company with $883 Mil in revenue currently trading at $80.81.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of 16.8% and operating margin of 4.2%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.01 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.4
- Valuation: Inspire Medical Systems stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of 53.2 and P/EBIT multiple of 51.1
- Has returned (median) 11.7% within a year following sharp dips since 2010. See INSP Dip Buy Analysis.
These metrics point to a Strong operational performance, alongside High valuation – making the stock Fairly Priced. For details, see Buy or Sell INSP Stock
That brings us to the key consideration for investors worried about this fall: how resilient is INSP stock if markets turn south? This is where our downturn resilience framework comes in. Suppose INSP stock falls another 20-30% to $57 – can investors comfortably hold on? Turns out, the stock has fared worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns, based on (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered. Below, we dive deeper into each such downturn.
2022 Inflation Shock
- INSP stock fell 61.6% from a high of $326.08 on 14 July 2023 to $125.26 on 13 November 2023 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
- The highest the stock has reached since then is $251.19 on 2 May 2024 , and currently trades at $80.81
| INSP | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -61.6% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | Not Fully Recovered | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- INSP stock fell 53.7% from a high of $89.92 on 2 March 2020 to $41.62 on 23 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 17 June 2020
| INSP | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -53.7% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 86 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- INSP stock fell 35.0% from a high of $56.99 on 4 September 2018 to $37.07 on 7 December 2018 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 8 February 2019
| INSP | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -35.0% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 63 days | 120 days |
Feeling jittery about INSP stock? Consider portfolio approach.
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