How Much Higher Can Western Digital Stock Go From Here?
Shares of Western Digital (WDC) have fallen 25.6% since September 23, 2026, closing at $352.21 on October 19. A decline this fast tempts buyers. Anyone stepping in today would be betting on a company whose cloud customers keep buying more hard disk drives at higher prices. How far have Western Digital shares climbed after past drops of this kind?
Western Digital Stock Rose A Year After Six Drops
Since the start of 2010, the stock has fallen more than 30% within 30 trading days seven times. The latest drop occurred in August 2026 and remains too recent to evaluate. A year after all six of the other declines, Western Digital shares traded higher by a median of 60%. The gains ranged from 21% to 894%, with the largest increase following the April 2025 drop. At the median, the highest price over the course of that year stood 72.6% above the price on the day of the decline.
Investors aiming for those returns usually had to sit through further declines along the way. At the median, the stock hit a low point in the subsequent year that closed 14.6% below the dip-day price. The worst subsequent drop left shares 38.4% lower following the March 2020 decline. The highest price of the year arrived a median of 360 days, or about twelve months, after the initial drop.
| Time after a past dip | Past dips with that much time after them | Median WDC price change |
|---|---|---|
| 21 trading days | 7 | 7.0% |
| 63 trading days | 6 | 2.0% |
| 126 trading days | 6 | 29.0% |
| 252 trading days | 6 | 60.0% |
| Dip date | WDC price change over the 30 trading days to the dip date | SPY price change over the same days | WDC price change 252 trading days after the dip date | Highest price in those 252 trading days, against the dip-date price | Calendar days to that highest price | Lowest price in those 252 trading days, against the dip-date price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | -35.7% | 5.0% | window not complete | window not complete | window not complete | window not complete |
| 2025-04-03 | -35.9% | -12.0% | 894.0% | 896.3% | 370 | -10.6% |
| 2022-09-23 | -31.0% | -12.0% | 31.0% | 35.8% | 343 | -10.7% |
| 2020-03-09 | -31.8% | -17.0% | 48.0% | 54.3% | 357 | -38.4% |
| 2019-05-31 | -31.6% | -5.0% | 21.0% | 96.0% | 237 | -19.3% |
| 2016-01-21 | -30.1% | -10.0% | 72.0% | 73.0% | 363 | -18.5% |
| 2011-08-19 | -31.4% | -16.0% | 72.0% | 72.2% | 364 | -7.5% |
| Median of 6 complete windows | – | – | 60.0% | 72.6% | 360 | -14.6% |
Buying more Western Digital after a fall makes one stock a bigger share of what you own. See how to protect a concentrated position.
Cloud Customers Paid Western Digital More In Fiscal 2026
Western Digital’s cloud customers are paying more for more storage so far. Fiscal Q4 2026 revenue reached $3.75 billion, compared with $2.61 billion a year earlier. Management credited favorable pricing alongside growth in storage shipped, which the company measures in exabytes. They said on the August 5 call that Cloud made up 89% of revenue.
Gross margin was 43.5% in fiscal Q1 2026 and 45.7% in Q2. That figure expanded to 50.2% in Q3 and climbed to 54.1% in Q4. Cash from operations accounted for 30.4% of revenue over the twelve months, and Western Digital ended the year holding more cash than debt.
Volume represents the softer part of the business. Exabyte shipments rose 22% from a year earlier in Q4, compared with a 25% increase for the full fiscal year. Even so, management guided fiscal Q1 2027 revenue to $4.1 billion, plus or minus $100 million, during the August 5 call. Those results are expected on or around October 22, 2026.
Is Western Digital Stock As Cheap As It Looks?
The shares do not look cheap based on the cash the business brings in. Western Digital trades at 13.3 times its twelve-month earnings, compared with 22.9 for the S&P 500. Net income of $9.3 billion over those months was double the company’s operating income, so the low P/E counts profit beyond what operations actually earned. Measured against cash from operations, the stock costs 31.5 times, while the S&P 500 costs 15.0.
A buyer at today’s price is therefore paying for the margin to keep rising. This margin has moved the shares before. The stock fell on August 6, 2026, after the company’s margin outlook fell short of the expectations set by rival Seagate.
Buying now asks an investor to believe that Western Digital shares will recover as they did following past declines, and that cloud customers will keep purchasing more storage at higher prices. The stock has recovered after every past drop old enough to judge, after a further fall first. Cloud customers are still paying more, but shipment growth slowed in the latest quarter. Growth in the exabytes Western Digital ships remains the number to watch in the report expected around October 22.
Is Too Much Of Your Wealth Riding On One Stock?
A fall like this makes Western Digital holders want to act, by buying more or by getting out. When one position grows into a large part of your wealth, a sharp fall can hurt your whole plan, and selling to spread the money out can bring a large tax bill. Our partner advisory firm offers a free strategy review of ways to protect a concentrated position and unwind it with less tax.
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