What Are MARA Stock Bears Missing?

Investors betting on MARA (MARA) may be focused on the electric power the company controls at its own sites. You probably think of MARA as a bitcoin miner, but management now calls AI infrastructure the next use for those locations. Yet the stock fell 63.6% over the past year, while the S&P 500 returned 17.4%. So how much power is MARA putting together?

MARA Plans To More Than Double Its Power

MARA expects its power portfolio to reach about 4.8 gigawatts once pending deals close and receive necessary approvals. Management said on the fiscal Q2 2026 call that this expansion would more than double the company’s current capacity. One of those deals is Long Ridge, a $1.5 billion acquisition by enterprise value. MARA is funding the purchase using bitcoin-backed debt and Long Ridge’s own balance sheet rather than issuing new shares.

The company has also bought the rights to a power site in Matagorda County, Texas, that could support about 2 gigawatts once it wins ERCOT and interconnection approval. Management expects the new capacity to let MARA move away from hosted mining, where other companies run its machines, as those agreements end by the first quarter of 2028.

Why Does MARA’s Power Matter While Bitcoin Falls?

Investors fear a falling bitcoin price because MARA’s sales still move with it. Revenue in fiscal Q2 2026 was $175 million, down 26.7% from a year earlier. A 28% drop in bitcoin prices weighed heavily on quarterly sales, but balance-sheet write-downs did the real damage: MARA posted a $3.46 billion net loss over the twelve months to June 30, 2026, largely dragged down by fair-value markdowns on its crypto stash.

Long Ridge addresses part of that worry. Because long-term contracts cover about 70% of its output, that income appears to stand apart from the bitcoin price. MARA expects the deal to add about $144 million a year in EBITDA, its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization. The price of Long Ridge equals about 30% of MARA’s own enterprise value, which stood at $4.96 billion at the October 19, 2026 close.

MARA’s newer businesses remain small. Its blockchain finance platform has contract revenue, but management said that revenue will not be material to the company’s total in the near term.

What Could Go Wrong For MARA Holders?

Debt poses a risk for holders. MARA’s total debt equals 87.6% of its market value, against 20.0% for the S&P 500. Long Ridge adds to that burden, since MARA expects to take on about $900 million of Long Ridge’s debt, on top of $600 million in new borrowing. MARA has also pledged 54% of its bitcoin holdings as collateral for its borrowings. In the 2022 inflation shock, the stock fell 84.0%, against 24.0% for the S&P 500 ETF.

MARA still needs approvals for the power plan. The Long Ridge deal will close only after FERC approves it, which management expects before year end. MARA also said it is working with Starwood on lease talks across several sites and is confident of signing at least two leases by then.

The case for MARA rests on the power it is gathering, not the bitcoin it mines. FERC’s ruling on Long Ridge and the first leases, both expected before the end of 2026, are the two things to watch.

Does This Mean You Should Act On MARA?

Our purpose is to inform you with unique data so you make the right investment decisions. That said, betting on a single stock is always risky, no matter which direction you choose.

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