Vistra Stock Surged 60%, Here’s Why

VST: Vistra logo
VST
Vistra

Vistra (VST)’s stock rocketed 57%, powered less by earnings than a staggering 260% leap in its P/E multiple—even as revenue dipped and margins took a hit. Behind this surge: a mix of strategic moves, earnings beats, and bold buybacks that rewrote investor expectations.

Below is an analytical breakdown of stock movement into key contributing metrics.

  4202025 1152026 Change
Stock Price ($) 115.0 180.2 56.7%
Change Contribution By LTM LTM
Total Revenues ($ Mil) 17,224.0 17,191.0 -0.2%
Net Income Margin (%) 15.4% 6.7% -56.6%
P/E Multiple 14.7 53.0 260.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil) 340.2 338.7 0.4%
Cumulative Contribution 56.7%

So what is happening here? The stock surged 57%, driven by a massive 260% jump in P/E multiple, despite a slight 0.2% dip in revenue and a 57% fall in net margin. Let’s explore what fueled this shift.

Here Is Why Vistra Stock Moved

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  • Q3 2025 Earnings: Strong Q3 Adj EBITDA & 2026 guidance, despite revenue miss. $1B new share buyback.
  • Q2 2025 Earnings: Revenue missed forecasts, net income dropped due to plant outages and depreciation.
  • Meta Nuclear PPA: 20-year power agreement with Meta announced Jan 9, 2026, boosting stock 10.47%.
  • Cogentrix Acquisition: Acquisition of 5,496 MW natural gas plants completed, expanding portfolio.
  • Share Buyback Boost: Additional $1.0 billion authorized for share repurchases in Q3 2025.

Our Current Assesment Of VST Stock

Opinion: We currently find VST stock unattractive. Why so? Have a look at the full story. Read Buy or Sell VST Stock to see what drives our current opinion.

Risk: To gauge risk, it helps to see how far VST has fallen in major market shocks. The 2018 correction hit it for about 21%, while the Covid pandemic pushed it down roughly 46%. The inflation shock wasn’t much kinder, with a drop close to 33%. Even with solid fundamentals, VST hasn’t been immune to steep drawdowns when the broader market sells off. It shows that no matter how strong a stock looks, downside risk can still be significant in tough times.

VST stock may have seen strong gains recently, but investing in a single stock without detailed, thorough analysis can be risky. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.