Buy or Sell VeriSign Stock Ahead of Its Upcoming Earnings?

VeriSign (NASDAQ:VRSN) is scheduled to announce its earnings on Thursday, July 24, 2025. Over the past five years, VRSN stock has shown an even split in one-day returns following earnings announcements. The stock experienced a positive one-day return in 50% of instances, with a median gain of 2.9%. Conversely, it saw a negative one-day return in the other 50% of instances, with a median decline of -2.7%.

While the actual results compared to consensus estimates will be crucial, understanding these historical patterns can provide an edge for event-driven traders. There are two primary approaches to leverage this information:

• Pre-Earnings Positioning: Based on historical probabilities, traders might consider taking a position before the earnings release.
• Post-Earnings Analysis: Alternatively, traders can analyze the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns after the earnings are released to inform their positioning.

Analysts are projecting earnings of $2.20 per share on sales of $410 million for the upcoming quarter. This would represent an increase from the year-ago quarter’s earnings of $2.01 per share on sales of $387 million.

From a fundamental perspective, VeriSign has a current market capitalization of $27 billion. Over the last twelve months, the company generated $1.6 billion in revenue, with operating profits of $1.1 billion and a net income of $791 million, indicating strong operational profitability.

That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative — having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception. Also, see – What’s Happening With PepsiCo Stock?

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VeriSign’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 50% of the time.
• Notably, this percentage increases to 58% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 10 positive returns = 2.9%, and median of the 10 negative returns = -2.7%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

VRSN 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

VRSN Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

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