Century Aluminum Stock (+7.1%): Analyst Upgrade Ignites 52-Week High

Century Aluminum (CENX) surged +7.1% on 12/19/2025, reaching a new 52-week high of $35.25 on heavy trading volume. This move was catalyzed by a new “Buy” rating and a $42 price target from Texas Capital Securities the day prior. The aggression of the move, breaking significant psychological levels, begs the question: is this a sustainable re-rating based on fundamentals, or a speculative chase fueled by a single analyst call?

The fundamental picture for CENX is mixed, with recent positive developments potentially outweighing a weaker-than-expected Q3. While the company missed EPS estimates in the last quarter, it’s positioned to benefit from supportive government policies and is undertaking strategic initiatives to boost production.

• Texas Capital Securities initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $42 price target.
• The company is restarting idled production at its Mt. Holly, SC smelter.
• Q3 2025 EPS of $0.56 missed the consensus estimate of $0.79.

Trade Mechanics & Money Flow

Trade Mechanics: What Happened?

The +7.1% move was characterized by a significant spike in volume, suggesting a surge in interest beyond typical retail activity. Short interest, while not excessively high, could have contributed to the aggressive buying as the stock broke to new highs.

• Trading volume was notably heavy, with 4 million shares traded, a significant increase from the previous day.
• As of late November 2025, short interest stood at 7.96% of the public float.
• The stock reached a new 52-week high, indicating a strong momentum breakout.

How Is The Money Flowing?

The substantial volume and price appreciation point towards institutional involvement, likely sparked by the positive analyst coverage. While retail participation undoubtedly played a role in chasing the breakout, the initial thrust appears to be from ‘smart money’ positioning for future growth.

• Institutional investors hold a significant portion of the stock.
• The move broke through the previous 52-week high, a key psychological level.
• There is no specific data available on dark pool activity for this date.

Understanding trade mechanics, money flow, and price behavior can give you and edge. See more.

What Next?

FOLLOW. The initiation of coverage from a reputable firm with a high price target provides a strong catalyst. While the recent earnings miss is a point of caution, the strategic initiatives to increase domestic production, coupled with supportive government policies, suggest a favorable outlook. Watch for a consolidation above the breakout level of $35.00. A successful hold and subsequent volume-supported move above this level would confirm the legitimacy of this re-rating and signal further upside potential, likely targeting the analyst’s $42.00 price target. A failure to hold $35.00 would indicate a potential liquidity grab and a reason to reconsider the position.

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