11-Day Rally Sends Frontier Stock Up 49%
Frontier (ULCC) stock hit day 11 of a continuous streak of days with gains, with cumulative gains over this period amounting to a 49% return. The company has gained about $330 Mil in value over the last 11 days, with its current market capitalization at about $1.0 Bil. The stock remains 21.8% below its value at the end of 2024. This compares with year-to-date returns of 16.4% for the S&P 500.
Frontier’s recent streak reflects strategic gains amid competitor Spirit’s significant fleet cuts and bankruptcy woes, paving the way for ULCC to aggressively expand its route network and capture market share. This competitive tailwind, coupled with some positive analyst sentiment, has propelled the carrier’s outlook.
What is the point? Momentum often precedes conviction. A multi-day win streak can signal growing investor confidence or spark follow-on buying. Tracking such trends can help you ride the strength, or prepare for a well-timed entry if momentum fades. Our take: There is a lot to fear in ULCC stock given its overall Very Weak operating performance and financial condition. Hence, despite its Very Low valuation, we think that the stock is Unattractive (see Buy or Sell ULCC).
For quick background, ULCC provides air transportation services with a fleet of 110 Airbus aircraft, serving around 120 U.S. and international airports across the Americas.
Comparing ULCC Stock Returns With The S&P 500
The following table summarizes the return for ULCC stock vs. the S&P 500 index over different periods, including the current streak:
| Return Period | ULCC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1D | 7.5% | -0.3% |
| 11D (Current Streak) | 48.7% | 4.7% |
| 1M (21D) | 42.9% | 1.9% |
| 3M (63D) | 9.4% | 5.1% |
| YTD 2025 | -21.8% | 16.4% |
| 2024 | 30.2% | 23.3% |
| 2023 | -46.8% | 24.2% |
| 2022 | -24.3% | -19.4% |
However, big gains can follow sharp reversals – but how has ULCC behaved after prior drops? See ULCC Dip Buyer Analysis to learn more.
Gains and Losses Streaks: S&P 500 Constituents
There are currently 53 S&P constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive gains and 104 constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive losses.
| Consecutive Days | # of Gainers | # of Losers |
|---|---|---|
| 3D | 8 | 52 |
| 4D | 22 | 14 |
| 5D | 20 | 6 |
| 6D | 0 | 22 |
| 7D or more | 3 | 10 |
| Total >=3 D | 53 | 104 |
Key Financials for Frontier (ULCC)
Last 2 Fiscal Years:
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $3.6 Bil | $3.8 Bil |
| Operating Income | $-2.0 Mil | $58.0 Mil |
| Net Income | $-11.0 Mil | $85.0 Mil |
Last 2 Fiscal Quarters:
| Metric | 2025 FQ2 | 2025 FQ3 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $929.0 Mil | $886.0 Mil |
| Operating Income | $-75.0 Mil | $-77.0 Mil |
| Net Income | $-70.0 Mil | $-77.0 Mil |
While ULCC stock looks attractive given its winning streak, investing in a single stock without detailed, thorough analysis can be risky. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.