Can Uber Stock Grow 2x?

Uber Technologies (NYSE:UBER) has seen solid gains lately as its core ridesharing, delivery, and freight businesses benefit from recovering demand, plus a renewed focus on margin improvements and shareholder returns. With gross bookings increasing 17-18% year over year in recent quarters, and adjusted EBITDA growing strongly, investors are asking: could Uber meaningfully outperform from current levels? Could the stock double, or at least deliver big upside? Let’s break down the thesis. But if you seek an upside with less volatility than holding an individual stock, consider the High Quality Portfolio. It has comfortably outperformed its benchmark—a combination of the S&P 500, Russell, and S&P MidCap indexes—and has achieved returns exceeding 91% since its inception. Separately, see – Is Klarna stock worth the premium?

Photo by Mohamed_hassan on Pixabay

Core Thesis: What It Would Take for Meaningful Upside

At its current valuation, Uber appears to trade with somewhat moderate expectations baked in. Its revenue base is already large—around $43.9 billion in 2024, up 18% year over year, and if it can sustain 18% annual growth, revenues could reach around $70 billion by 2027; with margins improving to 12–15%, net income could climb to $6–10 billion versus today’s $3 billion. At current levels, Uber trades near a $200 billion market cap, but applying higher profitability and a more generous 25–40× P/E multiple in line with peers, the company could justify a $350–400 billion valuation within three years. That math translates to a stock price of around $200, or roughly double today’s $99, assuming Uber delivers on both growth and margin expansion.

Key Growth Drivers

Several levers could help Uber realize that upside:

• Gross Bookings & Demand Recovery: Uber’s Q2 2025 showed 17-21% growth in gross bookings YoY. As people get back to offices, urban mobility rebounds, and delivery demand remains strong, bookings should continue rising.
• Margin Expansion: Adjusted EBITDA margins are increasing. Uber is benefiting from scale, lower promotional or discount pressures, better utilization in its mobility network, and operational efficiencies. Also, free cash flow has turned sharply positive.
• Share Buybacks & Cash Return: Uber recently authorized a large stock repurchase program (e.g. U.S. $20B) which reduces float and can materially enhance per-share metrics.
• Diversified Businesses: Uber is not just rides — delivery, freight, and other newer verticals give it options. Having multiple income streams helps hedge against weakness in any one. Also, there may be optional upside from autonomous vehicles (AVs) or other new mobility technologies over the longer run.

Risks & What Could Hold It Back

• Cost Pressures: Insurance, driver costs, fuel, regulatory costs, and logistics costs (especially in delivery/freight) can escalate. If Uber mismanages cost escalation, margin expansion may underperform expectations.
• Competition & Regulatory Risk: Ride-hailing, food delivery, and freight are highly competitive globally. Regulatory headwinds (labor laws, pricing regulation, safety, etc.) could cap upside or force higher costs.
• Autonomous Vehicle Uncertainty: While AVs are often cited as a long-term upside, timelines are uncertain and costs are high. Over-reliance on AV upside could disappoint if regulatory, technical, or adoption issues delay impact.
• Valuation Expectations Already Partly Baked In: Given recent profit and growth, some part of the upside may already be reflected in the current stock price. If results miss on margins or revenue growth, a valuation correction could follow.

The Verdict

Uber today looks like a more mature, cash-flow positive growth business, rather than a perpetual loss-making startup. At $99 per share (EV/Revenue 4.3-4.8x, P/E in 15-20× range (depending on estimates), the market has already begun pricing in many positive expectations. That said, there is still considerable room for upside if Uber can deliver on margin expansion, sustained revenue growth, and shareholder returns. Under a plausible scenario of solid medium-term growth and improved profitability, the stock could double from current levels—especially if multiples re-rate upward.

For investors who believe Uber can maintain its scale advantages, keep control of costs, and execute on its diversified model, it offers a compelling asymmetric opportunity. But execution will be critical—and downside remains meaningful if growth slows or margins disappoint.

Investors should be prepared for significant volatility and the potential for substantial losses if market conditions deteriorate or if the company fails to execute on its ambitious growth plans. While the 2x upside potential is mathematically sound based on projected revenues, it requires flawless execution in a rapidly evolving and competitive landscape. Now, we apply a risk assessment framework while constructing the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, which, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming the S&P 500 over the last 4-year period. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.

Invest with Trefis Market-Beating Portfolios

See all Trefis Price Estimates