Can BlackBerry Stock Double?

BlackBerry (NYSE:BB), once synonymous with mobile handsets, has transformed into a software-centric company focused on cybersecurity and embedded systems. After years of strategic pivots and restructuring, the stock has rebounded in 2025, trading around the $4 level as investor confidence grows in its new business model. But with the shares still far from historical highs, could BlackBerry realistically double again toward $8 per share? Let’s unpack the thesis.

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Core Thesis: The Path to $8

Business Transformation and Revenue Outlook

BlackBerry’s annual revenues have stabilized around the mid-$500 million range following its transition from hardware to software and services, with trailing twelve-month revenue figures close to $538 million. Recent quarterly performance topped expectations and the company raised its full-year revenue forecast modestly to between $531 million and $541 million for fiscal 2026. This reflects solid demand for its core offerings, particularly in cybersecurity and automotive software.

BlackBerry’s valuation remains modest relative to many growth-oriented software peers, trading at several times forward sales despite operating in high-growth market segments. If revenue growth accelerates beyond current guidance—say toward $800 million to $900 million over the next couple of years on stronger adoption of its QNX embedded software and expanded secure communications contracts—and if the market assigns a higher price-to-sales multiple closer to sector averages, the share price could potentially reach $8. This outcome assumes both fundamental growth and valuation re-rating.

The insight here is simple: BlackBerry does not need blockbuster growth to deliver meaningful returns. Stabilized or modestly expanding revenues, plus a normalization of valuation multiples, could power outsized gains compared with its current trading range.

Key Growth Drivers

• Expansion in Automotive and Embedded Software: BlackBerry’s QNX platform is a core asset embedded in millions of vehicles globally and continues to gain traction in advanced driver assistance systems and safety-critical applications. Its presence in new automotive software domains positions it well to benefit from secular trends in software-defined vehicles and connected car technologies.
• Demand for Secure Communications: The company’s secure communications and software divisions have shown sequential revenue gains, contributing to overall stability. Recent results exceeded expectations in both QNX and secure communications segments, giving management confidence to lift guidance.
• Improving Profitability and Cash Flows: Strategic moves such as the sale of the Cylance endpoint security assets have streamlined operations and strengthened the balance sheet, enhancing cash generation and reducing volatility. This has helped BlackBerry post positive adjusted EBITDA in recent periods.
• Recurring Revenue Model: Software and services tend to deliver higher recurring revenue compared with one-time license fees. As BlackBerry expands annual recurring revenue in its software businesses, earnings consistency could improve, supporting a higher valuation multiple over time.

Of Course, There Are Risks

• Competitive Pressures: BlackBerry operates in fiercely competitive markets, with rivals in cybersecurity and automotive software that have deeper resources and faster growth trajectories. Maintaining market share and margin in these segments is not guaranteed.
• Revenue Headwinds: While guidance was raised, overall growth is modest. Revenue is only expected to increase slightly year-over-year, and some segments face headwinds from macroeconomic factors such as supply chain delays in automotive markets.
• Valuation Risk: A re-rating toward higher multiples depends on both performance and sentiment. If growth stalls or guidance disappoints, the stock could retrace sharply given its still speculative nature.

The Verdict

At around $4 per share, BlackBerry trades at a discount relative to many software peers despite its transformation into a cybersecurity and embedded systems provider. If the company can grow revenues meaningfully above current guidance and continue to improve profitability, a path to $8+ per share is plausible through a combination of top-line growth and multiple expansion. Achieving this would mark not just stability, but a validation of BlackBerry’s shift from legacy hardware to recurring software revenue.

That said, BlackBerry remains a high-conviction, higher-risk investment tied to execution in competitive software markets and macro drivers affecting enterprise and automotive spending. For investors bullish on software-defined vehicles, secure communications, and long-term embedded software growth, BlackBerry offers an asymmetric upside potential with meaningful caveats.

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