Intuitive Machines Stock To $10?
Intuitive Machines (LUNR) stock has jumped 38% during the past day, and is currently trading at $14.94. Our multi-factor assessment suggests that it may be time to sell LUNR stock. We have, overall, a pessimistic view of the stock, and a price of $10 may not be out of reach. We believe there are several things to fear in LUNR stock given its overall Weak operating performance and financial condition. But keeping in mind its Very High valuation, we think that the stock is Very Unattractive.
Below is our assessment:
| CONCLUSION | |
|---|---|
| What you pay: | |
| Valuation | Very High |
| What you get: | |
| Growth | Inconsistent |
| Profitability | Very Weak |
| Financial Stability | Very Strong |
| Downturn Resilience | Very Weak |
| Operating Performance | Weak |
| Stock Opinion | Very Unattractive |
Individual stocks can soar or tank but one thing matters: staying invested. High Quality Portfolio helps you do that.
Let’s get into details of each of the assessed factors but before that, for quick background: With $1.8 Bil in market cap, Intuitive Machines provides space products and services supporting robotic and human exploration of the moon, Mars, and beyond through lunar access, orbital, data, and infrastructure solutions.
[1] Valuation Looks Very High
| LUNR | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| Price-to-Sales Ratio | 8.0 | 3.2 |
| Price-to-Earnings Ratio | -9.1 | 23.5 |
| Price-to-Free Cash Flow Ratio | -44.0 | 20.6 |
This table highlights how LUNR is valued vs broader market. For more details see: LUNR Valuation Ratios
[2] Growth Is Inconsistent
- Intuitive Machines has seen its top line grow at an average rate of 70.8% over the last 3 years
- Its revenues have grown 7.1% from $204 Mil to $218 Mil in the last 12 months
- Also, its quarterly revenues declined -12.8% to $51 Mil in the most recent quarter from $58 Mil a year ago.
| LUNR | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-Year Average | 70.8% | 5.5% |
| Latest Twelve Months* | 7.1% | 6.0% |
| Most Recent Quarter (YoY)* | -12.8% | 7.2% |
This table highlights how LUNR is growing vs broader market. For more details see: LUNR Revenue Comparison
[3] Profitability Appears Very Weak
- LUNR last 12 month operating income was $-68 Mil representing operating margin of -30.9%
- With cash flow margin of -4.1%, it generated nearly $-9.0 Mil in operating cash flow over this period
- For the same period, LUNR generated nearly $-193 Mil in net income, suggesting net margin of about -88.2%
| LUNR | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| Current Operating Margin | -30.9% | 18.8% |
| Current OCF Margin | -4.1% | 20.4% |
| Current Net Income Margin | -88.2% | 13.1% |
This table highlights how LUNR profitability vs broader market. For more details see: LUNR Operating Income Comparison
[4] Financial Stability Looks Very Strong
- LUNR Debt was $371 Mil at the end of the most recent quarter, while its current Market Cap is $1.8 Bil. This implies Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 21.2%
- LUNR Cash (including cash equivalents) makes up $622 Mil of $754 Mil in total Assets. This yields a Cash-to-Assets Ratio of 82.5%
| LUNR | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| Current Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 21.2% | 21.1% |
| Current Cash-to-Assets Ratio | 82.5% | 7.1% |
[5] Downturn Resilience Is Very Weak
LUNR has fared much worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns. We assess this based on both (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered.
2022 Inflation Shock
- LUNR stock fell 97.0% from a high of $81.99 on 22 February 2023 to $2.43 on 26 December 2023 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
- The highest the stock has reached since then is $23.07 on 26 January 2025 , and currently trades at $14.94
| LUNR | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -97.0% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | Not Fully Recovered | 464 days |
But the risk is not limited to major market crashes. Stocks fall even when markets are good – think events like earnings, business updates, outlook changes. Read LUNR Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.
The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.