United Airlines Stock Drop Looks Sharp, But How Deep Can It Go?
United Airlines (UAL) stock is down 5.9% in a day. The recent slide reflects renewed concerns around rising fuel costs and its MileagePlus changes, but sharp drops like this often raise a tougher question: is the weakness temporary, or a sign of deeper cracks in the story?
Before judging its downturn reslience, let’s look at where United Airlines stands today.
- Size: United Airlines is a $36 Bil company with $59 Bil in revenue currently trading at $110.05.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of 3.5% and operating margin of 8.4%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.87 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.16
- Valuation: United Airlines stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of 10.6 and P/EBIT multiple of 6.5
- Has returned (median) 45.4% within a year following sharp dips since 2010. See UAL Dip Buy Analysis.
These metrics point to a Weak operational performance, alongside Low valuation – making the stock Fairly Priced. For details, see Buy or Sell UAL Stock
That brings us to the key consideration for investors worried about this fall: how resilient is UAL stock if markets turn south? This is where our downturn resilience framework comes in. Suppose UAL stock falls another 20-30% to $77 – can investors comfortably hold on? Turns out, the stock has fared much worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns, based on (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered. Below, we dive deeper into each such downturn.
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2022 Inflation Shock
- UAL stock fell 50.0% from a high of $62.45 on 17 March 2021 to $31.20 on 7 March 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 14 October 2024
- Since then, the stock increased to a high of $117.53 on 6 January 2026 , and currently trades at $110.05
| UAL | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -50.0% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 952 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- UAL stock fell 77.8% from a high of $89.74 on 2 January 2020 to $19.92 on 15 May 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 13 November 2024
| UAL | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -77.8% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 1,643 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- UAL stock fell 30.3% from a high of $82.03 on 2 June 2017 to $57.20 on 14 November 2017 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 7 August 2018
| UAL | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -30.3% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 266 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis
- UAL stock fell 93.9% from a high of $51.49 on 23 October 2007 to $3.13 on 15 July 2008 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 10 September 2014
| UAL | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -93.9% | -56.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 2,248 days | 1,480 days |
Feeling jittery about UAL stock? Consider portfolio approach.
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