How United Airlines Stock Gained 60%
United Airlines (UAL)’s stock soared 59%, propelled less by revenue gains and more by a sharp rebound in investor optimism. After a rocky Q3 miss and a government shutdown cloud, a surprise Q4 beat and upgraded price targets reignited demand—fueling a soaring P/E multiple that’s rewriting the narrative.
Below is an analytical breakdown of stock movement into key contributing metrics.
| 4252025 | 1202026 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 68.2 | 108.6 | 59.2% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 57,736.0 | 58,368.0 | 1.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.3% | 5.6% | -11.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 6.1 | 10.7 | 74.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 327.7 | 323.7 | 1.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 59.2% |
So what is happening here? The stock rose 59%, driven by a modest 1.1% revenue increase, an 11% dip in net margin, and a strong 75% jump in the P/E multiple. Let’s see what’s behind these shifts.
Here Is Why United Airlines Stock Moved
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- Q4 2025 Earnings Beat: United reported better-than-expected Q4 2025 profits and revenue, with an upbeat 2026 EPS outlook.
- Q3 2025 Earnings Miss: Disappointing Q3 2025 earnings report and revised outlook led to a significant stock price dive.
- Strong Demand Trends: Buoyant premium and loyalty customer demand, plus a bounce in business travel into 2026.
- Analyst PT Upgrades: Multiple analysts raised price targets in July-August 2025, boosting investor confidence.
- US Govt Shutdown Impact: November 2025 government shutdown cut Q4 2025 pre-tax earnings by approximately $250M.
Our Current Assesment Of UAL Stock
Opinion: We currently find UAL stock fairly priced. Why so? Have a look at the full story. Read Buy or Sell UAL Stock to see what drives our current opinion.
Risk: A good way to gauge risk with UAL is to check how deep the stock fell during major market shocks. It plunged nearly 93% in the Global Financial Crisis and dropped about 78% during the Covid crash. The 2018 correction saw a milder dip around 30%, while the inflation shock in 2022 still hit it for roughly 50%. Even with solid business factors, UAL has shown it can take big hits when the market turns sour. That kind of volatility is something to keep in mind.
UAL stock may have seen strong gains recently, but investing in a single stock without detailed, thorough analysis can be risky. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.