What Could Texas Instruments Stock Be Worth In Three Years?
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Texas Instruments (TXN) stock returned 93.5% over the year to October 30, 2026, beating the 11.3% for the S&P 500. Investors are now paying 38.7 times its earnings over the last four fiscal quarters. That multiple sits above its average of 33.9 at the past twelve fiscal quarter ends. Whether you held through that run or watched it, how much more could the shares be worth if sales keep growing?
Texas Instruments Stock Could Be Worth 58% More
Under the scenario outlined below, Texas Instruments shares would be worth about $475.51 three years after the October 30 close. That compares to $300.84 that day, marking an upside of 58.1%, or 16.5% a year with dividends left out. The model assumes revenue grows 17.2% a year, set at 0.85 times its growth over the twelve months to fiscal Q3 2026. It sets the net margin at 70% of today’s figure plus 30% of its average at the twelve quarter ends before the latest one. The P/E stays at today’s level as an assumption rather than a forecast. This holds the multiple at 38.7 three years on, keeping it above the 33.9 average.
The table sets today’s figures beside the scenario’s.
| Today | In three years (scenario) | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $20.8 billion | $33.5 billion |
| Net margin | 34.3% | 33.6% |
| Earnings | $7.11 billion | $11.2 billion |
| P/E | 38.7 | 38.7 |
| Share price | $300.84 | $475.51 |
Higher sales supply all of the gain and a little more. A slightly lower net margin takes a little back, and the P/E adds nothing. Analog chips made up 79.2% of Texas Instruments’ sales in fiscal 2025. On the October 21 call, management said Analog revenue grew 32% from a year earlier in fiscal Q3 2026. By market, industrial sales rose more than 40%, and data center sales nearly doubled.
Can Texas Instruments Keep Its Sales Growing This Fast?
Management sees no slowdown, describing growing demand from industrial, automotive and data center customers. Revenue in fiscal Q3 2026 rose 27.7% from a year earlier, faster than the scenario’s pace. Part of that is a recovery. Management said industrial sales only now got back to their fiscal Q3 2022 level, four years later.
Texas Instruments is adding supply to keep up. Management said it can grow capacity every quarter, helped by a new site in Malaysia, and expects capital spending of $2 billion to $3 billion in 2026. Its only revenue guide covers one quarter, calling for $5.8 billion to $6.3 billion for fiscal Q4 2026. That range is centered at about the $6.06 billion reported for fiscal Q3, so it says nothing about a three-year pace.
How Texas Instruments’ Upside Changes Under Other Assumptions
Each row below changes one assumption and keeps the other two as in the scenario.
| If instead | Upside |
|---|---|
| Nothing changes (the scenario) | 58.1% |
| Revenue growth of 15.2% a year instead of 17.2% | 50.1% |
| Net margin of 32.1% in year three instead of 33.6% | 51.0% |
| 5 years at the same assumptions instead of 3 | 117.2% |
The scenario starts from a strong year that followed two weaker ones. Revenue grew 9.9% in the twelve months to fiscal Q3 2025, after falling 13.3% in the twelve months before that. Today’s net margin sits above its 32.1% average for the twelve-month periods ended September 2023 to June 2026, which is why the scenario trims it slightly. The share count rose 0.5% from fiscal Q3 2023 to fiscal Q3 2026. The model holds that count at today’s level, so any further rise would leave each share worth a little less.
Revenue growth could slow from 20.3% over the latest twelve months to 0.6% a year before the shares would be worth no more in three years than they are today. On its own, the net margin could fall from 34.3% to 21.3% before the same happens. The P/E, also on its own, could fall from today’s level to 24.5.
All of the gain in this scenario comes from sales. That makes revenue growth from a year earlier the figure to watch when Texas Instruments reports fiscal Q4 2026, expected in January 2027.
Does This Mean You Should Act On TXN?
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