Texas Instruments Stock Pre-Market (+8.2%): Strong Q1 Revenue Guidance Overshadows Q4 Miss

TXN is surging +8.2% pre-market after posting Q4 results. While EPS narrowly missed consensus, the driver is a robust Q1 revenue forecast suggesting a potential cyclical recovery. Sentiment is bullish, but will the strong guidance be enough to fuel a breakout session?

The catalyst is not the mixed Q4 print but the forward guidance. Management guided Q1 revenue to $4.32B – $4.68B, with the midpoint of $4.5B comfortably beating analyst estimates of $4.42B.

• This implies an inflection and potential recovery in key industrial and automotive end-markets.
• The stronger-than-expected outlook is overshadowing the slight Q4 EPS miss of $1.27 vs. $1.28 est.
• Structurally, it signals pricing power and demand stabilization, a critical long-term thesis driver.

But here is the interesting part. You are reading about this 8.2% move after it happened. The market has already priced in the news. To catch the next winner before the headlines, you need predictive signals, not notifications. High Quality Portfolio has flagged 5 new opportunities that have not surged yet.

Playbook On Market Open

The session hinges on whether the market focuses on the forward-looking recovery story or the minor miss in the rearview mirror. We are planning for two distinct outcomes.

• BULL CASE (Gap & Go): Strong guidance is confirmed by positive analyst revisions. The stock must hold its opening gap and build a base above the pre-market highs.
• BEAR CASE (Gap & Fade): Cautious management commentary on the earnings call spooks investors. The stock fails to break initial resistance, and sellers drive it back into yesterday’s range.
• The broader market sentiment towards semiconductors today will be a major factor in either scenario.

Verdict

CONDITIONAL BUY / FADE: The $210 level is the key battleground. If the price holds above, we chase the upward momentum. If it breaks and holds below, we anticipate a fade of the pre-market gap.
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