How Texas Instruments Stock Gained 30%
Texas Instruments (TXN)’s stock surged 35%, not on earnings or margins, but on soaring investor optimism. Despite a Q4 miss, strong Q1 guidance, booming data center demand, and a recovering industrial market fueled a P/E multiple leap—hinting at deeper confidence worth uncovering.
Below is an analytical breakdown of stock movement into key contributing metrics.
| 10302025 | 1282026 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 160.5 | 216.2 | 34.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 17,266.0 | 17,266.0 | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 29.2% | 29.2% | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 28.9 | 39.0 | 34.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 909.0 | 909.0 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 34.7% |
So what is happening here? The stock price jumped 35%, driven entirely by a boost in the P/E multiple, while revenue and net margin stayed flat. Let’s dive into what’s behind this shift.
Here Is Why Texas Instruments Stock Moved
- Q4 2025 Earnings Miss: Q4 2025 EPS of $1.27 and revenue of $4.42B missed analyst estimates.
- Strong Q1 2026 Guidance: Q1 2026 revenue guidance of $4.32B-$4.68B indicated sequential growth not seen in 16 years.
- Data Center Demand: Exceptional strength in the data center market, with 70% year-over-year growth in 2025.
- Industrial Market Recovery: Management noted inventory backlogs clearing and recovery in the industrial market.
- Increased Free Cash Flow: Free cash flow rose dramatically to $2.9B, a 96% increase from the prior year.
Our Current Assesment Of TXN Stock
Opinion: We currently find TXN stock relatively expensive. Why so? Have a look at the full story. Read Buy or Sell TXN Stock to see what drives our current opinion.
Risk: A solid way to gauge risk for Texas Instruments is to check its past drops during major market sell-offs. It plunged about 77% in the Dot-Com bubble and roughly 64% in the Global Financial Crisis. The 2018 correction and Covid sell-off weren’t as brutal but still knocked it down around 25-30%. Even the inflation shock saw a 25% dip. So, despite strong fundamentals, TXN isn’t immune when the market freaks out.
TXN stock may have seen strong gains recently, but investing in a single stock without detailed, thorough analysis can be risky. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.