TWLO Shares Tumbled 26%, Opportunity Or Trap?
Twilio stock has fallen by 25.6% in less than a month, from levels of $132.70 on 7/23/2025 to $98.67 now. Should you buy this dip? Dip buying is a viable strategy for quality stocks that have a history of recovering from dips.
As it turns out, Twilio passes basic quality checks. But the bad news is that it has returned (median) -26% in one year, and 20% as peak return following sharp dips (>30% in 30 days) historically. TWLO a cloud communications platform enabling developers to build, scale, and manage customer engagement within software applications globally.
Price behaviour is one thing, but what do the fundamentals say? Read Buy or Sell TWLO Stock to see the full picture.
That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | 0.6% |
| 3M | -2.3% |
| 6M | -29.5% |
| 12M | -25.9% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
TWLO had 6 events since 1/1/2020 where the dip threshold of -30% within 30 days was triggered
- 20% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 61 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -41% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | TWLO Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | TWLO | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | -26% | 20% | -41% | 61 | ||||
| 3122025 | -30% | -8% | -4% | 29% | -21% | 133 | ||
| 11042022 | -37% | 2% | 30% | 77% | 0% | 104 | ||
| 5062022 | -34% | -9% | -48% | 3% | -60% | 7 | ||
| 1212022 | -30% | -6% | -71% | 10% | -78% | 11 | ||
| 12032021 | -33% | -0% | -81% | 12% | -83% | 18 | ||
| 3122020 | -37% | -24% | 371% | 466% | -8% | 343 | ||
Twilio Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 9.3% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 13.9% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 15.6% | Pass |
Dip buying, while attractive, needs to be evaluated carefully from multiple angles. Such multi-factor analysis is exactly how we construct Trefis portfolio strategies. If you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.