TOST’s One-Day Drop Offers a Chance to Reevaluate AFRM
Affirm (AFRM) offers superior revenue growth across key periods, better profitability, and relatively lower valuation vs Toast (TOST), suggesting you may be better off investing in AFRM
- AFRM’s quarterly revenue growth was 33.0%, vs. TOST’s 24.8%.
- In addition, its Last 12 Months revenue growth came in at 38.8%, ahead of TOST’s 26.1%.
- AFRM’s LTM margin is higher: 10.5% vs. TOST’s 3.6%.
TOST operates a cloud-based platform offering mobile ordering, handheld POS devices, card readers, and delivery services to enhance restaurant operations in the US and Ireland. AFRM operates a digital, mobile-first commerce platform offering point-of-sale payments, merchant solutions, and a consumer app, serving around 29,000 merchants in the US and Canada.
Valuation & Performance Overview
| TOST | AFRM | Preferred | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | |||
| P/EBIT Ratio | 114.6 | 87.2 | AFRM |
| Revenue Growth | |||
| Last Quarter | 24.8% | 33.0% | AFRM |
| Last 12 Months | 26.1% | 38.8% | AFRM |
| Last 3 Year Average | 36.2% | 34.3% | TOST |
| Operating Margins | |||
| Last 12 Months | 3.6% | 10.5% | AFRM |
| Last 3 Year Average | -3.3% | -20.9% | TOST |
| Momentum | |||
| Last 3 Year Return | 119.0% | 350.6% | TOST |
Note: For “Last 3 Year Return” metric, preferred stock is one with higher returns unless the returns are too high (>300%) which creates risk of sell off.
See more revenue details: TOST Revenue Comparison | AFRM Revenue Comparison
See more margin details: TOST Operating Income Comparison | AFRM Operating Income Comparison
But do these numbers tell the full story? Read Buy or Sell AFRM Stock to see if Affirm’s edge holds up under the hood or if Toast still has cards to play (see Buy or Sell TOST Stock).
That is one way to look at stocks. Trefis High Quality Portfolio evaluates much more, and is designed to reduce stock-specific risk while giving upside exposure
Historical Market Performance
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | Avg | Best | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||||
| TOST Return | – | – | -48% | 1% | 100% | 13% | 18% | ||
| AFRM Return | – | – | -90% | 408% | 24% | 48% | -8% | ||
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 106% | <=== | |
| Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||||
| TOST Win Rate | – | 33% | 33% | 50% | 67% | 62% | 41% | ||
| AFRM Win Rate | – | 36% | 25% | 67% | 33% | 75% | 39% | ||
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 62% | 63% | <=== | |
| Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||||
| TOST Max Drawdown | – | – | -63% | -23% | -11% | -18% | -19% | ||
| AFRM Max Drawdown | – | – | -91% | -7% | -51% | -41% | -32% | ||
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -12% | <=== | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] 2025 data is for the year up to 9/22/2025 (YTD)
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
No matter how good the numbers, stock investment is never a smooth ride. There is a risk you must factor in. Read AFRM Dip Buyer Analyses and TOST Dip Buyer Analyses to see how these stocks have fallen and recovered in the past.