Time To Buy The Dip In AppLovin Stock?
AppLovin (APP) stock has fallen by 10.8% in less than a month, from $517.23 on 9th Mar, 2026 to $461.45 now. Should you buy this dip?
Dip buying is a viable strategy for quality stocks that have a history of recovering from dips. As it turns out, APP stock passes basic quality checks. But the bad news is that historically, the median return for the 12-month period following sharp dips was -13%, with median peak return of 37%. We define sharp dip as stock going down 20% or more, in less than 30 day period.
Below, we get into details of historical dips and subsequent returns.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
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| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | -15.5% |
| 3M | -13.4% |
| 6M | -13.4% |
| 12M | -13.4% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
APP had 5 events since 1/1/2010 where the dip threshold of -20% within 30 days was triggered
- 37% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 114 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -55% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | APP Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | APP | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | -13% | 37% | -55% | 114 | ||||
| 1212026 | -23% | -0% | -13% | 7% | -31% | 8 | ||
| 3062025 | -28% | -6% | 78% | 183% | -16% | 291 | ||
| 8182022 | -23% | 10% | 35% | 37% | -68% | 361 | ||
| 1182022 | -23% | 1% | -86% | 4% | -87% | 28 | ||
| 7202021 | -21% | 2% | -38% | 89% | -55% | 114 | ||
AppLovin Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 61.1% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 40.7% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 68.4% | Pass |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | 19.2 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 12.0 |
Not sure if you can take a call on APP stock? Consider portfolio approach
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Individual stocks are unpredictable. A smart portfolio helps you invest, limits downside shocks, and provides upside exposure.
The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? HQ Portfolio has posted more than 105% in cumulative return since inception, with less risk versus the benchmark index, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.