TOST Down 8.6% In A Month. How Confident Are You In The Stock?
Toast (TOST) stock is down 8.6% in 21 trading days. The stock still looks expensive which, combined with history of only modest recovery post dips, suggests some risk. Consider the following data:
- Size: A $23 Bil company with $5.5 Bil in revenue currently trading at $38.92.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of 26.1% and operating margin of 3.6%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.0 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.62
- Valuation: Currently trading at P/E multiple of 100.8 and P/EBIT multiple of 114.6
- Has returned (median) 11.8% within a year following sharp dips since 2010. See TOST Dip Buy Analysis.
While we like to buy dips if the fundamentals check out – for TOST, see Buy or Sell TOST Stock – we are wary of falling knives. Specifically, it is worth trying to answer if things get really bad, and TOST drops another 20-30% to $27.24 levels, will we be able to hold on to the stock? What is the worst case scenario? We call it downturn resilience.
Below is a deep dive into Toast (TOST) downturn resilience – specifically, its performance vs the market during past crises? Turns out, the stock has fared much worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns. We assess this based on both (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered.
Below are the details, but before that, as a quick background: TOST provides a cloud-based platform for restaurants, offering mobile ordering and payment, handheld POS devices, card readers, and delivery services through a partner driver network.
2022 Inflation Shock
- TOST stock fell 80.6% from a high of $65.22 on 2 November 2021 to $12.68 on 11 May 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
- The highest the stock has reached since then is $49.30 on 4 August 2025 , and currently trades at $38.92
| TOST | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -80.6% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Worried that TOST could fall much more? You could take a look at the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.