Would You Still Hold Tilray Brands Stock If It Fell Another 30%?
Tilray Brands (TLRY) stock is down 22.2% in 5 trading days. The recent slide reflects renewed concerns around cannabis policy disappointment and sector-wide jitters, but sharp drops like this often raise a tougher question: is the weakness temporary, or a sign of deeper cracks in the story?
Before judging its downturn reslience, let’s look at where Tilray Brands stands today.
- Size: Tilray Brands is a $1.0 Bil company with $831 Mil in revenue currently trading at $9.60.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of 2.3% and operating margin of -10.7%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.32 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.13
- Valuation: Tilray Brands stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of -0.5 and P/EBIT multiple of -0.5
- Has one instance since 2010 where it dipped >30% in < 30 days and subsequently returned -2.1% within a year
These metrics point to a Weak operational performance, alongside Low valuation – making the stock Fairly Priced. For details, see Buy or Sell TLRY Stock
That brings us to the key consideration for investors worried about this fall: how resilient is TLRY stock if markets turn south? This is where our downturn resilience framework comes in. Suppose TLRY stock falls another 20-30% to $7 – can investors comfortably hold on? Turns out, the stock has fared much worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns, based on (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered. Below, we dive deeper into each such downturn.
2022 Inflation Shock
- TLRY stock fell 97.6% from a high of $63.91 on 10 February 2021 to $1.52 on 23 June 2023 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
- The highest the stock has reached since then is $13.94 on 16 December 2025 , and currently trades at $9.60
| TLRY | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -97.6% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | Not Fully Recovered | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- TLRY stock fell 88.4% from a high of $21.36 on 15 January 2020 to $2.47 on 18 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 2 February 2021
| TLRY | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -88.4% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 321 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- TLRY stock fell 92.7% from a high of $214.06 on 19 September 2018 to $15.72 on 30 December 2019 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
| TLRY | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -92.7% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | Not Fully Recovered | 120 days |
Feeling jittery about TLRY stock? Consider portfolio approach.
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Individual stocks can soar or tank but one thing matters: staying invested. The right portfolio can help you stay invested, capture upside and mitigate the downside associated with any individual stock.
The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.