Would You Still Hold Brown-Forman Stock If It Fell Another 30%?
Brown-Forman (BF-B) stock is down 9.3% in 5 trading days. The recent slide reflects weak Q2 results and slowing US spirits demand, but sharp drops like this often raise a tougher question: is the weakness temporary, or a sign of deeper cracks in the story? [cite: 1, 3, 5 (from “Brown-Forman Q3 earnings impact”), 1 (from “Brown-Forman stock analysis December 2025”)]
Before judging its downturn reslience, let’s look at where Brown-Forman stands today.
- Size: Brown-Forman is a $12 Bil company with $3.9 Bil in revenue currently trading at $26.19.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of -4.7% and operating margin of 28.9%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.21 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.04
- Valuation: Brown-Forman stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of 15.3 and P/EBIT multiple of 11.0
- Has one instance since 2010 where it dipped >30% in < 30 days and subsequently returned -2.1% within a year. See BF-B Dip Buy Analysis.
These metrics point to a Weak operational performance, alongside Moderate valuation – making the stock Unattractive. For details, see Buy or Sell BF-B Stock
That brings us to the key consideration for investors worried about this fall: how resilient is BF-B stock if markets turn south? This is where our downturn resilience framework comes in. Suppose BF-B stock falls another 20-30% to $18 – can investors comfortably hold on? Turns out, the stock saw an impact slightly worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns, based on (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered. Below, we dive deeper into each such downturn.
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2022 Inflation Shock
- BF-B stock fell 34.6% from a high of $81.10 on 3 June 2021 to $53.00 on 12 October 2023 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
- The highest the stock has reached since then is $60.78 on 5 March 2024 , and currently trades at $26.19
| BF-B | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -34.6% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | Not Fully Recovered | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- BF-B stock fell 35.4% from a high of $71.90 on 23 January 2020 to $46.48 on 23 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 17 August 2020
| BF-B | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -35.4% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 147 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- BF-B stock fell 23.4% from a high of $59.22 on 18 May 2018 to $45.35 on 3 January 2019 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 3 September 2019
| BF-B | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -23.4% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 243 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis
- BF-B stock fell 41.1% from a high of $16.74 on 5 June 2008 to $9.87 on 10 March 2009 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 23 July 2010
| BF-B | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -41.1% | -56.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 500 days | 1,480 days |
Feeling jittery about BF-B stock? Consider portfolio approach.
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