Would You Still Hold Brown-Forman Stock If It Fell Another 30%?
Brown-Forman (BF-B) stock is down 9.3% in 5 trading days. The recent slide reflects weak Q2 results and slowing US spirits demand, but sharp drops like this often raise a tougher question: is the weakness temporary, or a sign of deeper cracks in the story? [cite: 1, 3, 5 (from “Brown-Forman Q3 earnings impact”), 1 (from “Brown-Forman stock analysis December 2025”)]
Before judging its downturn reslience, let’s look at where Brown-Forman stands today.
- Size: Brown-Forman is a $12 Bil company with $3.9 Bil in revenue currently trading at $26.19.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of -4.7% and operating margin of 28.9%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.21 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.04
- Valuation: Brown-Forman stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of 15.3 and P/EBIT multiple of 11.0
- Has one instance since 2010 where it dipped >30% in < 30 days and subsequently returned -2.1% within a year. See BF-B Dip Buy Analysis.
These metrics point to a Weak operational performance, alongside Moderate valuation – making the stock Unattractive. For details, see Buy or Sell BF-B Stock
That brings us to the key consideration for investors worried about this fall: how resilient is BF-B stock if markets turn south? This is where our downturn resilience framework comes in. Suppose BF-B stock falls another 20-30% to $18 – can investors comfortably hold on? Turns out, the stock saw an impact slightly worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns, based on (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered. Below, we dive deeper into each such downturn.
2022 Inflation Shock
- BF-B stock fell 34.6% from a high of $81.10 on 3 June 2021 to $53.00 on 12 October 2023 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
- The highest the stock has reached since then is $60.78 on 5 March 2024 , and currently trades at $26.19
| BF-B | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -34.6% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | Not Fully Recovered | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- BF-B stock fell 35.4% from a high of $71.90 on 23 January 2020 to $46.48 on 23 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 17 August 2020
| BF-B | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -35.4% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 147 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- BF-B stock fell 23.4% from a high of $59.22 on 18 May 2018 to $45.35 on 3 January 2019 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 3 September 2019
| BF-B | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -23.4% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 243 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis
- BF-B stock fell 41.1% from a high of $16.74 on 5 June 2008 to $9.87 on 10 March 2009 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 23 July 2010
| BF-B | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -41.1% | -56.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 500 days | 1,480 days |
Feeling jittery about BF-B stock? Consider portfolio approach.
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