AST SpaceMobile: Is This Starlink Rival Stock Poised To Soar Higher?

December 26th, 2025 by Trefis Team
ASTS: AST SpaceMobile logo
ASTS
AST SpaceMobile

AST SpaceMobile stock (NASDAQ:ASTS) – a company building a low-Earth-orbit (LEO) satellite constellation to beam broadband directly to smartphones –  has surged nearly 20% over the past five trading days and remains up more than 260% year to date. As an aside, see Where Is Alphabet Stock Headed?

The recent rally was driven by a couple of key events. Firstly, the White House recently issued an executive order titled “Ensuring American Space Superiority,” underscoring U.S. leadership in space and outlining ambitions that include lunar bases by 2030. Adding to the momentum, the U.S. Senate’s appointment of entrepreneur and SpaceX astronaut Jared Isaacman as NASA administrator is being read as a signal of increased preference for commercially proven operators, benefiting companies such as AST SpaceMobile. Separately, AST also successfully launched its BlueBird 6 satellite earlier this week. BlueBird 6 is more than three times the size of its prior satellites, supports roughly 10x the data capacity, and is expected to be the largest commercial phased array operating in LEO. The launch could be seen as a validation of AST’s technology and de-risks its path towards providing direct-to-smartphone broadband at meaningful capacity.

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Like Starlink, But For Mainstream Users

There’s an ongoing race to build broadband services via satellites, with Elon Musk’s SpaceX holding the lead with more than 8,000 Starlink satellites already in orbit. However, AST SpaceMobile’s strategy differs in important ways. While Starlink targets consumers directly by selling hardware and internet subscriptions, AST’s satellites are designed to function like space-based cell towers, integrating directly into the networks of existing mobile operators such as AT&T, Vodafone, Rakuten, and Verizon.

This approach means that users can access connectivity from these satellites with their regular smartphones and existing SIM cards helping to eliminate coverage dead zones. During its Q2 2025 earnings update, the company said that it had confirmed a plan to deploy 45 to 60 satellites into orbit by 2026 to power cellular-based broadband networks. The company intends to have orbital launches every one to two months on average in 2026 and has indicated that the satellites are fully funded. The company is targeting continuous service in the U.S., Europe, Japan, and other markets.

For carriers, the value proposition is significant. Partnering with AST allows them to extend 4G and 5G coverage into deserts, oceans, mountain regions, and other under-served areas where traditional towers are uneconomical. Rather than marketing directly to consumers, AST earns revenue by charging carriers for access to its satellite capacity, with pricing based on usage or through long-term agreements.  This approach could give AST a recurring, high-margin revenue base while locking in deep partnerships across the global telecom industry. AST has reportedly partnered with over 50 mobile network operators globally, allowing them to reach nearly 3 billion subscribers.

High Valuation, Justified By Growth

With a market cap of about $30 billion, ASTS trades at about 500x consensus 2025 revenues of $60 million and 110x estimated 2026 revenue. This is a steep valuation given that the company is in its early stage of operations. However, growth has been rapid, albeit on a small base, with revenues rising 249% over the past year to $4.9 million. Consensus projects that revenue will cross $250 million by the next year. See ASTS Revenue Comparison . That being said, losses remain heavy, with operating losses standing at $260 million over the last 12 months. ASTS has fared much worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns.

During the 2022 inflation shock market crash, ASTS stock fell 68.5% from a high of $22.50 on 9 February 2021 to $7.08 on 1 June 2021 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500. Read ASTS Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past. That said, the company still has a strong balance sheet, with $924 million in cash and cash equivalents, a debt-to-equity ratio of just 4.3%, and cash making up nearly half its total assets. This financial flexibility should give AST the runway to execute on its satellite deployment plan, though investors will need to be patient as the company shifts from technology rollout to commercial-scale revenue generation.

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