SPS Commerce Stock To $106?
SPS Commerce (SPSC) stock has fallen by 27.7% in less than a month, from $112.24 on 24th Oct, 2025 to $81.13 now. What comes next? We believe there is a good chance of a stock rebound considering history of recovery post-dips and our current Attractive opinion of the stock. Read Buy or Sell SPS Commerce Stock to see how we arrive at this opinion.
Dip buying is a viable strategy for quality stocks that have a history of recovering from dips. As it turns out, SPSC stock passes basic quality checks. Historically, the median return for the 12-month period following sharp dips was 39%, with median peak return reaching 54%. We define sharp dip as stock going down 30% or more, in less than 30 day period.
Below, we get into details of historical dips and subsequent returns.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
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| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | 1.7% |
| 3M | 6.2% |
| 6M | 35.7% |
| 12M | 38.8% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
SPSC had 3 events since 1/1/2010 where the dip threshold of -30% within 30 days was triggered
- 54% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 236 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -18% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | SPSC Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | SPSC | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | 39% | 54% | -18% | 236 | ||||
| 3032025 | -31% | -1% | -39% | 16% | -41% | 71 | ||
| 3162020 | -33% | -25% | 181% | 204% | -16% | 297 | ||
| 2052016 | -32% | -8% | 39% | 54% | -18% | 236 | ||
SPS Commerce Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 19.3% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 19.1% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 23.8% | Pass |
Not sure if you can take a call on SPSC stock? Consider portfolio approach
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Stocks can jump or crash but different assets move on different cycles. A multi asset portfolio helps you stay invested while cushioning swings in equities.
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