Tearsheet

SPS Commerce (SPSC)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $82.98 | Market Cap: $3.1 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software

SPS Commerce (SPSC)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $82.98
Market Cap: $3.1 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Application Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -102%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -110%
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.0%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -28%
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 47%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), and Supply Chain Digitization.
  
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -28%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 47%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), and Supply Chain Digitization.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -102%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -110%
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.0%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

SPSC Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for the movement of SPS Commerce (SPSC) stock: 1. SPS Commerce's Q3 2025 Revenue Missed Analyst Estimates. The company's third-quarter 2025 earnings report revealed revenue of $189.9 million, which was below analysts' consensus estimate of $192.67 million, despite adjusted earnings per share exceeding expectations.

2. The Company Issued Weak Guidance for Q4 2025 and Full-Year 2025. SPS Commerce provided a financial outlook for the fourth quarter of 2025 and the entire year that significantly underperformed Wall Street's projections for both adjusted earnings per share and revenue.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SPSC Return96%31%-10%51%-5%-55%48%
Peers Return27%-1%-26%33%57%861%1751%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SPSC Win Rate75%58%67%67%42%30% 
Peers Win Rate25%42%21%56%53%40% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SPSC Max Drawdown-42%-15%-31%-5%-17%-58% 
Peers Max Drawdown-13%-12%-32%-20%-12%-31% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GWRE, INFA, TENB, BMR, BTTC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventSPSCS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-43.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven77.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven390 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-47.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven90.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven63 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-37.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven58.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven189 days120 days

Compare to GWRE, INFA, TENB, BMR, BTTC


In The Past

SPS Commerce's stock fell -43.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/28/2021. A -43.6% loss requires a 77.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About SPS Commerce (SPSC)

Better Bets than SPS Commerce (SPSC)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SPSC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
1.9%1.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.7%3.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
8.0%8.0%0.0%
SPSC_10312021_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312021SPSCSPS CommerceQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-21.7%-17.2%-36.1%
SPSC_1312021_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%01312021SPSCSPS CommerceQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
10.2%25.2%-6.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
1.9%1.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.7%3.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
8.0%8.0%0.0%
SPSC_10312021_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312021SPSCSPS CommerceQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-21.7%-17.2%-36.1%
SPSC_1312021_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%01312021SPSCSPS CommerceQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
10.2%25.2%-6.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for SPS Commerce

Peers to compare with:

Financials

SPSCGWREINFATENBBMRBTTCMedian
NameSPS Comm.Guidewir.Informat.Tenable Beamr Im.Black Ti. 
Mkt Price83.50215.76-26.812.223.4226.81
Mkt Cap3.218.2-3.2--3.2
Rev LTM7301,202-975-2852
Op Inc LTM10841--5--021
FCF LTM148280-248--248
FCF 3Y Avg127160-181--160
CFO LTM173301-265--265
CFO 3Y Avg149178-194--178

Growth & Margins

SPSCGWREINFATENBBMRBTTCMedian
NameSPS Comm.Guidewir.Informat.Tenable Beamr Im.Black Ti. 
Rev Chg LTM19.3%22.6%-11.1%--19.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg19.1%14.1%-14.6%--14.6%
Rev Chg Q16.0%22.3%-11.2%--16.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.7%5.7%-2.7%--3.7%
Op Mgn LTM14.8%3.4%--0.5%--3.8%1.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg14.4%-6.2%--3.3%---3.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.2%1.5%-1.0%--1.0%
CFO/Rev LTM23.8%25.0%-27.2%--25.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg24.1%16.4%-21.9%--21.9%
FCF/Rev LTM20.3%23.3%-25.4%--23.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg20.5%14.6%-20.4%--20.4%

Valuation

SPSCGWREINFATENBBMRBTTCMedian
NameSPS Comm.Guidewir.Informat.Tenable Beamr Im.Black Ti. 
Mkt Cap3.218.2-3.2--3.2
P/S5.416.5-3.6--5.4
P/EBIT36.4317.3-334.4--317.3
P/E46.4284.6--104.8--46.4
P/CFO22.766.0-13.3--22.7
Total Yield2.2%0.4%--1.0%--0.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%-0.0%--0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.4%1.1%-4.3%--2.4%
D/E0.00.0-0.1--0.0
Net D/E-0.0-0.0-0.0---0.0

Returns

SPSCGWREINFATENBBMRBTTCMedian
NameSPS Comm.Guidewir.Informat.Tenable Beamr Im.Black Ti. 
1M Rtn1.2%-5.4%--7.6%-12.3%-3.1%-5.4%
3M Rtn-22.7%-1.6%--12.8%-20.1%-14.5%-14.5%
6M Rtn-42.4%-15.0%--17.6%-30.6%-14.5%-17.6%
12M Rtn-56.4%5.7%--36.8%-27.5%4,785.7%-27.5%
3Y Rtn-42.5%255.2%--30.1%-3,320.0%112.6%
1M Excs Rtn1.2%-5.3%--7.6%-12.2%-3.1%-5.3%
3M Excs Rtn-29.0%-5.9%--17.1%-23.1%-19.8%-19.8%
6M Excs Rtn-57.1%-29.8%--32.4%-45.3%-29.2%-32.4%
12M Excs Rtn-70.3%-7.2%--49.7%-45.7%4,643.1%-45.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-110.0%201.5%--101.1%-3,299.3%50.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Supply chain management solutions537    
Analytics 47433937
Fulfillment 364307251219
One-time revenues 32301817
Other 8556
Total537451385313279


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,048,975
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-1.1%
Average Daily Volume687,885
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.98
Basic Shares Quantity37,895,000
Short % of Basic Shares5.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025730202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025424202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024219202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241024202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024725202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024425202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023221202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231026202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023727202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023426202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022221202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221027202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022727202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022429202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021222202210-K 12/31/2021