SPS Commerce (SPSC)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $89.86 | Market Cap: $3.4 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
SPS Commerce (SPSC)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $89.86Market Cap: $3.4 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -94%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -103% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.0% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -28% | Key risksSPSC key risks include [1] instability from its reliance on customers without long-term contracts and [2] operational disruptions from poorly integrating companies as part of its acquisition-based growth strategy. | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), and Supply Chain Digitization. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -28% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), and Supply Chain Digitization. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -94%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -103% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.0% |
| Key risksSPSC key risks include [1] instability from its reliance on customers without long-term contracts and [2] operational disruptions from poorly integrating companies as part of its acquisition-based growth strategy. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SPSC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The approximate -18.5% movement in SPS Commerce (SPSC) stock from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, can be attributed to several key factors:
1. Disappointing Q3 2025 Financial Results and Weak Guidance: SPS Commerce reported its third-quarter 2025 earnings on October 30, 2025. While non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) exceeded forecasts, the company's revenue of $189.9 million fell short of analyst expectations of $192.68 million. More significantly, the company issued weaker-than-expected revenue guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025 (ranging from $192.7 million to $194.7 million against a consensus of $199.9 million) and projected an initial 2026 revenue growth outlook of 7%-8%, a notable deceleration from historical performance and below prior analyst expectations. This news led to the stock plummeting nearly 27% in after-hours trading.
2. Multiple Analyst Downgrades and Reduced Price Targets: Following the Q3 2025 earnings report and conservative outlook, several prominent investment firms downgraded SPS Commerce's stock and significantly cut their price targets. For instance, on October 31, 2025, Stifel downgraded SPSC from a "Buy" to a "Hold" rating and slashed its target price from $150.00 to $80.00. Similarly, Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock from "Overweight" to "Equalweight" on November 11, 2025, reducing its price target from $140.00 to $100.00. Other firms like Cantor Fitzgerald, Needham, and DA Davidson also lowered their ratings or price targets, reflecting a cautious stance amidst fluctuating market conditions and growth concerns.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SPSC Return | 96% | 31% | -10% | 51% | -5% | -52% | 59% |
| Peers Return | 25% | 32% | -25% | 48% | 10% | -11% | 79% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SPSC Win Rate | 75% | 58% | 67% | 67% | 42% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 64% | 61% | 47% | 61% | 64% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SPSC Max Drawdown | -42% | -15% | -31% | -5% | -17% | -58% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -39% | -2% | -36% | -3% | -15% | -32% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DSGX, OTEX, MANH.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SPSC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -43.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 77.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 390 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -47.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 90.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 63 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -37.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 189 days | 120 days |
Compare to GWRE, TENB, AIB, BMR, CCC
In The Past
SPS Commerce's stock fell -43.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/28/2021. A -43.6% loss requires a 77.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SPSC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.6% | 9.6% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.1% | 10.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.5% | 13.5% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.1% | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | 0.0% |
| 10312021 | SPSC | SPS Commerce | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -21.7% | -17.2% | -36.1% |
| 01312021 | SPSC | SPS Commerce | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 10.2% | 25.2% | -6.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.6% | 9.6% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.1% | 10.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.5% | 13.5% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.1% | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | 0.0% |
| 10312021 | SPSC | SPS Commerce | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -21.7% | -17.2% | -36.1% |
| 01312021 | SPSC | SPS Commerce | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 10.2% | 25.2% | -6.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for SPS Commerce
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 89.43 |
| Mkt Cap | 8.1 |
| Rev LTM | 898 |
| Op Inc LTM | 243 |
| FCF LTM | 289 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 244 |
| CFO LTM | 299 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 251 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 15.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 23.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 21.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 28.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 26.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 25.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 8.1 |
| P/S | 8.1 |
| P/EBIT | 36.8 |
| P/E | 47.8 |
| P/CFO | 26.6 |
| Total Yield | 2.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.6% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -13.6% |
| 6M Rtn | -8.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -32.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 28.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -16.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -20.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -44.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -41.4% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/30/2025 | -20.8% | -22.5% | -20.8% |
| 7/30/2025 | -22.0% | -20.9% | -20.5% |
| 4/24/2025 | -0.9% | 2.2% | 2.8% |
| 2/10/2025 | -13.8% | -17.5% | -28.6% |
| 10/24/2024 | -10.7% | -13.6% | -1.0% |
| 7/25/2024 | 1.6% | 1.6% | -3.5% |
| 4/25/2024 | 5.6% | 7.5% | 14.4% |
| 2/8/2024 | 14.8% | 7.0% | 0.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 14 | 13 |
| # Negative | 11 | 10 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 2.5% | 7.0% | 10.3% |
| Median Negative | -2.1% | -10.4% | -11.1% |
| Max Positive | 14.8% | 13.4% | 33.9% |
| Max Negative | -22.0% | -22.5% | -36.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4242025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10242024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7252024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4252024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2212024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4262023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2212023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7272022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4292022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2222022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |