SPS Commerce (SPSC)
Market Price (4/15/2026): $52.55 | Market Cap: $2.0 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
SPS Commerce (SPSC)
Market Price (4/15/2026): $52.55Market Cap: $2.0 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20% Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -51% Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 7.7% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 46% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), and Supply Chain Digitization. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -104%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -134% | Key risksSPSC key risks include [1] instability from its reliance on customers without long-term contracts and [2] operational disruptions from poorly integrating companies as part of its acquisition-based growth strategy. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -51% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 7.7% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 46% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), and Supply Chain Digitization. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -104%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -134% |
| Key risksSPSC key risks include [1] instability from its reliance on customers without long-term contracts and [2] operational disruptions from poorly integrating companies as part of its acquisition-based growth strategy. |
Qualitative Assessment
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SPS Commerce (SPSC) stock has lost about 40% since 12/31/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. SPS Commerce provided a weaker-than-expected revenue outlook for 2026, indicating a significant deceleration in growth compared to previous periods. The company's Q1 2026 revenue guidance of $191.6 million to $193.6 million fell below analyst consensus estimates of $197.0 million to $197.6 million. Furthermore, the full-year 2026 revenue guidance projects approximately 7% growth, a notable decrease from the 18% growth observed in the full year 2025 revenue of $751.5 million. This decelerating growth profile became a primary concern for investors.
2. Multiple analyst downgrades and price target reductions followed the Q4 2025 earnings report and subsequent guidance. For instance, Craig-Hallum downgraded SPS Commerce from a "Buy" to a "Hold" rating and lowered its price target to $70.00 on February 13, 2026. Similarly, DA Davidson reduced their price target from $80.00 to $65.00 and set a "neutral" rating on February 17, 2026. Citigroup also lowered its price target from $110.00 to $84.00 on February 13, 2026. The consensus among analysts shifted to an average "Hold" rating with an average price target of $87.40, reflecting weakened sentiment.
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1. SPS Commerce provided a weaker-than-expected revenue outlook for 2026, indicating a significant deceleration in growth compared to previous periods. The company's Q1 2026 revenue guidance of $191.6 million to $193.6 million fell below analyst consensus estimates of $197.0 million to $197.6 million. Furthermore, the full-year 2026 revenue guidance projects approximately 7% growth, a notable decrease from the 18% growth observed in the full year 2025 revenue of $751.5 million. This decelerating growth profile became a primary concern for investors.
2. Multiple analyst downgrades and price target reductions followed the Q4 2025 earnings report and subsequent guidance. For instance, Craig-Hallum downgraded SPS Commerce from a "Buy" to a "Hold" rating and lowered its price target to $70.00 on February 13, 2026. Similarly, DA Davidson reduced their price target from $80.00 to $65.00 and set a "neutral" rating on February 17, 2026. Citigroup also lowered its price target from $110.00 to $84.00 on February 13, 2026. The consensus among analysts shifted to an average "Hold" rating with an average price target of $87.40, reflecting weakened sentiment.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -41.0% change in SPSC stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/14/2026 was primarily driven by a -46.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 89.13 | 52.55 | -41.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 730 | 752 | 3.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.7% | 12.4% | 6.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 39.7 | 21.2 | -46.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 38 | 38 | 0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -41.0% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SPSC | -41.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 22.2% |
| Sector (XLK) | 2.8% | 15.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -49.5% change in SPSC stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/14/2026 was primarily driven by a -55.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 104.14 | 52.55 | -49.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 704 | 752 | 6.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.8% | 12.4% | 5.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 47.7 | 21.2 | -55.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 38 | 38 | 0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -49.5% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SPSC | -49.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 17.4% |
| Sector (XLK) | 5.1% | 12.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -60.4% change in SPSC stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/14/2026 was primarily driven by a -67.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 132.73 | 52.55 | -60.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 638 | 752 | 17.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.1% | 12.4% | 2.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 64.9 | 21.2 | -67.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 38 | 38 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -60.4% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SPSC | -60.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 40.3% |
| Sector (XLK) | 43.9% | 35.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -65.5% change in SPSC stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/14/2026 was primarily driven by a -78.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 152.30 | 52.55 | -65.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 451 | 752 | 66.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.2% | 12.4% | 1.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 99.9 | 21.2 | -78.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 36 | 38 | -4.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -65.5% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SPSC | -65.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 46.5% |
| Sector (XLK) | 99.8% | 40.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SPSC Return | 31% | -10% | 51% | -5% | -52% | -42% | -53% |
| Peers Return | 32% | -25% | 48% | 10% | -13% | -31% | -3% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -0% | 81% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SPSC Win Rate | 58% | 67% | 67% | 42% | 42% | 25% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 61% | 47% | 61% | 64% | 47% | 8% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SPSC Max Drawdown | -15% | -31% | -5% | -17% | -58% | -42% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -2% | -36% | -3% | -15% | -32% | -32% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: DSGX, OTEX, MANH.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/14/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SPSC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -43.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 77.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 390 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -47.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 90.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 63 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -37.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 189 days | 120 days |
Compare to DSGX, OTEX, MANH
In The Past
SPS Commerce's stock fell -43.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/28/2021. A -43.6% loss requires a 77.2% gain to breakeven.
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About SPS Commerce (SPSC)
SPS Commerce, Inc. provides cloud-based supply chain management solutions worldwide. It offers solutions through the SPS Commerce, a cloud-based platform that enhances the way retailers, suppliers, grocers, distributors, and logistics firms manage and fulfill omnichannel orders, optimize sell-through performance, and automate new trading relationships. The company also provides Fulfillment solution that provides fulfillment automation and replaces or augments an organization's existing staff and trading partner electronic communication infrastructure by enabling easy compliance with retailers' rulebooks, automatic, and digital exchange of information among numerous trading partners through various protocols, and greater visibility into the journey of an order; and Analytics solution, which consists of data analytics applications that enables customers to enhance their visibility across supply chains through greater analytics capabilities. In addition, it offers various complimentary products, such as assortment product, which enables accurate order management and rapid fulfillment; and community product that accelerates vendor onboarding and ensures trading partner adoption of new supply chain requirements. The company was formerly known as St. Paul Software, Inc. and changed its name to SPS Commerce, Inc. in May 2001. SPS Commerce, Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
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Here are a few analogies to describe SPS Commerce:
- SPS Commerce is like the **Salesforce for the supply chain**, helping businesses manage and automate the complex relationships and data exchange between their retailers, suppliers, and logistics partners.
- Think of SPS Commerce as **Shopify for the B2B supply chain backend**, providing a cloud-based platform for businesses to seamlessly connect, communicate, and fulfill orders with their trading partners.
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Major services provided by SPS Commerce (SPSC) include:
- SPS Commerce Platform: A cloud-based platform for retailers, suppliers, and distributors to manage omnichannel orders, optimize performance, and automate trading relationships.
- Fulfillment Solution: Automates fulfillment processes, ensuring compliance with retailer rules and enhancing visibility into order journeys.
- Analytics Solution: Data analytics applications providing greater visibility and insights across supply chains.
- Assortment Product: Facilitates accurate order management and rapid fulfillment by managing product data.
- Community Product: Accelerates vendor onboarding and ensures trading partner adoption of supply chain requirements.
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SPS Commerce (SPSC) serves a broad and diversified customer base across the supply chain. No single customer accounts for a significant portion of its revenue, and specific names of major individual customer companies are not publicly disclosed due to the nature of its platform business, which serves a vast network of trading partners.
Based on the company description, its solutions are designed to enhance the operations of the following categories of companies, which represent its major customer segments:
- Retailers
- Suppliers
- Grocers
- Distributors
- Logistics firms
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- Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
- Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
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Chad Collins, Chief Executive Officer
Chad Collins is the Chief Executive Officer of SPS Commerce and serves on the company's board of directors. He has over 20 years of experience in supply chain technology, building market-leading businesses. Prior to joining SPS Commerce, he was Global CEO of Körber Supply Chain Software, leading worldwide operations and shaping long-term strategy. Before Körber, he served as President and CEO of HighJump, a global supply chain software company that was acquired by Körber in 2017. He began his career as a supply chain consultant at Cap Gemini Ernst & Young.
Kim Nelson, Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Kim Nelson leads SPS Commerce's finance organization, shaping financial strategy, strengthening relationships with investors and analysts, and ensuring disciplined financial management. She joined SPS Commerce in 2007. Prior to SPS Commerce, she held senior financial leadership roles at Amazon, including leading its investor relations department, and other financial management positions at Pillsbury (now General Mills) and Nestlé. She was instrumental in the company's successful initial public offering in April 2010.
Jamie Thingelstad, Executive Vice President & Chief Technology Officer
Jamie Thingelstad is responsible for leading the growth and development of SPS Commerce's technology platform, which includes global product development teams and data center operations. Before joining SPS Commerce, Jamie served as CTO/COO at 8thBridge, a social commerce startup, and as CTO for the Wall Street Journal Digital Network and the enterprise division of Dow Jones.
Mike Svatek, Chief Product Officer
Mike Svatek leads SPS Commerce's product vision and execution, ensuring that the product roadmap aligns with market opportunities, customer needs, and long-term business objectives. He previously served as Chief Innovation Officer at Cart.com and was Chief Product Officer at Bazaarvoice, where he helped build one of the world's largest eCommerce networks.
Eduardo Rosini, Executive Vice President & Chief Commercial Officer
Eduardo Rosini leads SPS Commerce's commercial organization, driving go-to-market strategy and execution to scale the company's global retail network leadership, deepen customer and partner relationships, and unlock new revenue growth across channels and markets. Before joining SPS Commerce, Eduardo served as Chief Growth Officer at Sage Group. He previously held senior leadership roles at Microsoft and Intuit.
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The key risks to SPS Commerce (SPSC) include intense competition, challenges related to customer retention and spending, and broader macroeconomic and supply chain volatility.
- Competitive Market Pressures: SPS Commerce operates in a highly competitive cloud-based supply chain management sector. It faces competition from both specialized electronic data interchange (EDI) and retail-integration providers, as well as larger enterprise resource planning (ERP) giants like SAP and Oracle, which bundle supply chain connectivity within their broader enterprise suites. This intense competition can lead to pricing pressure, longer sales cycles, and potential loss of market share. Competitors may possess greater capital and larger existing customer bases, necessitating continuous innovation and superior service quality from SPS Commerce to maintain its market position.
- Customer Retention and Spending Scrutiny: A significant portion of SPS Commerce's recurring revenue comes from customers who do not have long-term contracts, which introduces a degree of revenue volatility and unpredictability. Customers have the ability to terminate their contracts with relatively short notice, which could result in sudden revenue declines and affect financial stability. Furthermore, in challenging macroeconomic environments, cautious supplier tech spending and increased scrutiny of invoices can pressure revenue growth and margins.
- Macroeconomic and Supply Chain Volatility: SPS Commerce's performance is closely linked to the health of the retail sector and broader economic conditions. Economic downturns or uncertainties can lead to reduced spending on technology and supply chain management solutions, potentially lengthening sales cycles and affecting revenue growth. Additionally, broader supply chain disruptions, such as unpredictable delivery schedules, labor shortages, and rising costs, can impact the overall demand for the company's services, even those designed to mitigate such issues.
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SPS Commerce, Inc. (SPSC) operates within a substantial addressable market for its cloud-based supply chain management solutions. The company's estimated total addressable market (TAM) globally is $11.1 billion. In the U.S. alone, this addressable market is estimated at $6.5 billion. Additionally, SPS Commerce identifies the addressable market for its revenue recovery solutions as $750 million across first-party U.S. sellers.AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for SPS Commerce (SPSC) over the next 2-3 years:- Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) Expansion and Upselling/Cross-selling: SPS Commerce is focused on increasing its Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) by expanding the adoption of its comprehensive suite of solutions within its existing customer base. Many customers currently utilize only a portion of SPS Commerce's offerings, presenting a significant opportunity for upselling and cross-selling additional services like Analytics and the recently acquired Revenue Recovery solutions. This strategy aims to drive further growth from its established network.
- Product Innovation with AI-driven Solutions: The company has launched "MACS" (Multi-Agent Communication System) and "MAX" (AI-driven solutions), integrating agentic AI functionality across its platform. These new AI capabilities are designed to enhance network-based workflow automation, monitoring, and agent-to-agent data exchanges, promising more scalable and meaningful improvements for customers. Feedback from initial customer betas will inform future monetization strategies for these advanced offerings.
- Retailer Enablement Campaigns and Network Expansion: While new customer growth might see a moderated pace in the immediate future, retailer enablement campaigns are expected to be a key driver, particularly in the latter half of 2026. These campaigns are crucial for expanding SPS Commerce's extensive network by bringing more trading partners, such as suppliers, grocers, and distributors, onto the platform through existing retailer relationships, strengthening the network effect.
- Strategic Acquisitions: SPS Commerce has demonstrated a strategy of enhancing its offerings and extending its network reach through strategic acquisitions. Recent examples include Carbon6 in 2025 and SupplyPike in the prior year, which focus on areas like revenue recovery solutions. These acquisitions are anticipated to contribute to future revenue growth by integrating new capabilities and expanding the addressable market.
- Expansion into Higher-Value Network Connections and New Suites: Management is focused on increasing its addressable market by supporting higher-value network connections. The introduction of the Manufacturing Supply Chain Performance Suite earlier in 2025 is a direct example of this strategy, aiming to deepen integrations and sustain revenue momentum as the digital transformation of supply chains accelerates across various industries.
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Here is a summary of SPS Commerce's capital allocation decisions over the last 3-5 years:Share Repurchases
- SPS Commerce authorized a new share repurchase program of up to $100.0 million, effective December 1, 2025, through December 1, 2027.
- The company's board of directors approved an additional $200.0 million in repurchase authority on February 12, 2026, increasing the total authorized amount under the program to $300.0 million, effective from December 1, 2025, to December 1, 2027.
- For the year ended December 31, 2025, share repurchases totaled $115.0 million.
Outbound Investments
- In January 2025, SPS Commerce acquired Carbon6 Technologies for $210 million.
- SPS Commerce acquired SupplyPike in August 2024 for approximately $119 million in cash and $87 million in SPS Commerce stock, totaling around $206 million.
- In September 2023, the company acquired TIE Kinetix for €64.5 million.
Capital Expenditures
- SPS Commerce's capital expenditures were $19.59 million in 2021, $19.88 million in 2022, $19.76 million in 2023, and $20.05 million in 2024.
- The company's latest twelve months capital expenditures, peaking in September 2025, amounted to $25.087 million.
- Expected capital expenditures are $26.52 million for 2025 and $26.01 million for 2026.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03312026 | PANW | Palo Alto Networks | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03312026 | ALKT | Alkami Technology | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | DBX | Dropbox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.6% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | DLB | Dolby Laboratories | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.5% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | PTC | PTC | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.5% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| 02132026 | SPSC | SPS Commerce | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -10.1% | -10.1% | -12.6% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 60.52 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.7 |
| Rev LTM | 916 |
| Op Inc LTM | 252 |
| FCF LTM | 317 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 263 |
| CFO LTM | 328 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 271 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 15.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 23.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 21.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 29.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 27.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 27.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 25.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.7 |
| P/S | 4.8 |
| P/EBIT | 21.8 |
| P/E | 27.9 |
| P/CFO | 15.3 |
| Total Yield | 3.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.8% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -7.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -29.5% |
| 6M Rtn | -39.4% |
| 12M Rtn | -27.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | -28.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -12.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -30.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -44.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -58.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -96.5% |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $52.55 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 2.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 04/22/2010 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -65.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $61.26 | $93.51 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -14.2% | -43.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 44.6% | 46.4% |
| Downside Capture | 1.10 | 1.09 |
| Upside Capture | -88.47 | 45.01 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 18.5% | 29.8% |
SPSC Betas & Captures as of 3/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.21 | 0.50 | 0.77 | 0.62 | 1.02 | 1.21 |
| Up Beta | -3.61 | 1.02 | 1.10 | 1.17 | 1.22 | 1.39 |
| Down Beta | 0.11 | 0.59 | 0.43 | 0.45 | 0.54 | 0.78 |
| Up Capture | 59% | -124% | -39% | -28% | 43% | 91% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 14 | 23 | 61 | 118 | 368 |
| Down Capture | 50% | 174% | 181% | 125% | 138% | 110% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 28 | 40 | 65 | 133 | 380 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SPSC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPSC | -59.0% | 46.3% | -1.77 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 53.2% | 21.1% | 1.92 | 24.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 24.2% | 12.9% | 1.49 | 30.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 53.4% | 27.6% | 1.55 | -7.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 26.8% | 16.2% | 1.47 | -5.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 18.7% | 13.8% | 1.00 | 23.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -6.8% | 42.9% | -0.05 | 20.0% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SPSC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPSC | -11.6% | 38.9% | -0.21 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 17.3% | 24.7% | 0.63 | 51.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.1% | 17.0% | 0.50 | 53.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.5% | 17.8% | 1.03 | 3.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.7% | 18.8% | 0.51 | 7.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.9% | 18.8% | 0.11 | 41.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.8% | 56.5% | 0.32 | 26.1% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SPSC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPSC | 9.6% | 37.2% | 0.36 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 22.3% | 24.3% | 0.84 | 50.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 52.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.3% | 15.9% | 0.75 | 2.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.8% | 17.6% | 0.42 | 15.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 40.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.7% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 17.9% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/12/2026 | -4.4% | -10.5% | -8.2% |
| 10/30/2025 | -20.8% | -22.5% | -20.8% |
| 7/30/2025 | -22.0% | -20.9% | -20.5% |
| 4/24/2025 | -0.9% | 2.2% | 2.8% |
| 2/10/2025 | -13.8% | -17.5% | -28.6% |
| 10/24/2024 | -10.7% | -13.6% | -1.0% |
| 7/25/2024 | 1.6% | 1.6% | -3.5% |
| 4/25/2024 | 5.6% | 7.5% | 14.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 14 | 13 |
| # Negative | 12 | 10 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 2.8% | 7.0% | 10.3% |
| Median Negative | -3.2% | -12.1% | -8.2% |
| Max Positive | 14.8% | 13.4% | 33.9% |
| Max Negative | -22.0% | -22.5% | -28.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/21/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/29/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/12/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | 191.60 Mil | 192.60 Mil | 193.60 Mil | ||||
| Q1 2026 EPS | 0.95 | 0.97 | 0.99 | ||||
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 55.50 Mil | 56.50 Mil | 57.50 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Revenue | 798.50 Mil | 802.70 Mil | 806.90 Mil | ||||
| 2026 EPS | 4.42 | 4.46 | 4.5 | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 261.00 Mil | 263.25 Mil | 265.50 Mil | ||||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/30/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Revenue | 192.70 Mil | 193.70 Mil | 194.70 Mil | 0.6% | Raised | Guidance: 192.45 Mil for Q3 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 Net Income per Diluted Share | 0.53 | 0.55 | 0.57 | 5.8% | Raised | Guidance: 0.52 for Q3 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 Non-GAAP Income per Diluted Share | 0.98 | 1 | 1.02 | 2.0% | Raised | Guidance: 0.98 for Q3 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | 58.80 Mil | 59.80 Mil | 60.80 Mil | 1.5% | Raised | Guidance: 58.90 Mil for Q3 2025 | |
| 2025 Revenue | 751.60 Mil | 752.60 Mil | 753.60 Mil | -1.1% | Lowered | Guidance: 761.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Net Income per Diluted Share | 2.31 | 2.33 | 2.34 | 5.9% | Raised | Guidance: 2.19 for 2025 | |
| 2025 Non-GAAP Income per Diluted Share | 4.1 | 4.12 | 4.15 | 2.7% | Raised | Guidance: 4.01 for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | 229.70 Mil | 230.70 Mil | 231.70 Mil | -0.6% | Lowered | Guidance: 232.20 Mil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reaume, Marty M | Direct | Sell | 2112026 | 79.92 | 1,000 | 79,920 | 731,907 | Form | |
| 2 | Reaume, Marty M | Direct | Sell | 3112026 | 62.73 | 1,000 | 62,730 | 574,481 | Form | |
| 3 | Collins, Chadwick | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 58.66 | 13,384 | 785,128 | 4,237,779 | Form |
| 4 | Nelson, Kimberly K | EVP & CFO | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 58.66 | 6,300 | 369,527 | 8,531,508 | Form |
| 5 | Thingelstad, Jamie | EVP, Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 54.94 | 2,418 | 132,852 | 3,095,695 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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