Sprouts Farmers Market Stock Lost 26%, Buy Or Wait?
Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) stock is down 26.1% in a day. Already own the stock? You might want to consider holding it. Planning to buy? This might be your opportunity. Consider the following data:
- Size: Sprouts Farmers Market is a $7.5 Bil company with $8.7 Bil in revenue currently trading at $77.25.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of 16.6% and operating margin of 7.8%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.25 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.08
- Valuation: Sprouts Farmers Market stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of 14.7 and P/EBIT multiple of 11.2
- Has returned (median) 27.8% within a year following sharp dips since 2010. See SFM Dip Buy Analysis.
While we like to buy dips if the fundamentals check out – for SFM, see Buy or Sell SFM Stock – we are wary of falling knives. Specifically, it is worth trying to answer if things get really bad, and SFM drops another 20-30% to $54 levels, will we be able to hold on to the stock? What is the worst case scenario? We call it downturn resilience. Turns out, the stock has fared worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns. We assess this based on both (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered.
A single stock can be risky, but there is a huge value to a broader, diversified approach. If you seek an upside with less volatility than holding an individual stock, consider the Trefis High Quality Portfolio (HQ). HQ has outperformed its benchmark — a combination of S&P 500, Russell, and S&P midcap index — and achieved returns exceeding 91% since its inception. Risk management is key — consider what the long-term portfolio performance could be if you blended 10% commodities, 10% gold, and 2% crypto with HQ’s performance metrics.
Below are the details, but before that, as a quick background: SFM provides fresh produce, meat, seafood, deli, bakery, floral, dairy, and dairy alternatives across 374 stores in 23 states.
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2022 Inflation Shock
- SFM stock fell 33.9% from a high of $34.75 on 8 April 2022 to $22.98 on 18 May 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 2 March 2023
- Since then, the stock increased to a high of $179.53 on 2 June 2025 , and currently trades at $77.25
| SFM | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -33.9% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 288 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- SFM stock fell 32.2% from a high of $27.41 on 21 July 2020 to $18.59 on 2 November 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 26 March 2021
| SFM | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -32.2% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 144 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- SFM stock fell 41.8% from a high of $29.11 on 10 September 2018 to $16.93 on 31 July 2019 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 28 December 2021
| SFM | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -41.8% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 881 days | 120 days |
It is a good thing to keep in mind how low SFM could go during a downturn. And you should also check how the stock fared when compared with the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.