Can Rocket Lab Stock Recover If Markets Fall?
Rocket Lab (RKLB) stock is down 32.0% in 21 trading days. The recent slide reflects concerns over Neutron rocket delays impacting profitability and future growth, but sharp drops like this often raise a tougher question: is the weakness temporary, or a sign of deeper cracks in the story?
Before judging its downturn reslience, let’s look at where Rocket Lab stands today.
- Size: Rocket Lab is a $23 Bil company with $504 Mil in revenue currently trading at $45.54.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of 54.4% and operating margin of -44.1%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.02 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.44
- Valuation: Rocket Lab stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of -101.4 and P/EBIT multiple of -106.4
- Has returned (median) 1.7% within a year following sharp dips since 2010. See RKLB Dip Buy Analysis.
These metrics point to a Strong operational performance, alongside Very High valuation – making the stock Relatively Expensive.
That brings us to the key consideration for investors worried about this fall: how resilient is RKLB stock if markets turn south? While we like to buy dips when the fundamentals check out (see Buy or Sell RKLB Stock) – we stay wary of potential falling knives.
This is where our downturn resilience framework comes in. Suppose RKLB stock falls another 20-30% to $32 – can investors comfortably hold on? Turns out, the stock saw an impact slightly better than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns, based on (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered. No matter where RKLB stock goes, your portfolio should stay on track. See how High Quality Portfolio can help you do that.
Below are the details, but before that, as a quick background: RKLB provides launch services, small orbital vehicles, and satellite platforms for commercial, aerospace, and government space and defense sectors.
2022 Inflation Shock
- RKLB stock fell 82.8% from a high of $20.72 on 9 September 2021 to $3.56 on 27 December 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 21 November 2024
- Since then, the stock increased to a high of $69.27 on 15 October 2025 , and currently trades at $45.54
| RKLB | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -82.8% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 695 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- RKLB stock fell 3.2% from a high of $10.44 on 16 December 2020 to $10.11 on 31 December 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 13 January 2021
| RKLB | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -3.2% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 13 days | 148 days |
It is a good thing to keep in mind how low RKLB could go during a downturn. And you should also check how the stock fared when compared with the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.