Rivian Stock 2x To $30?

September 8th, 2025 by Trefis Team
RIVN: Rivian Automotive logo
RIVN
Rivian Automotive

We believe that RIVN stock (NASDAQ: RIVN) could potentially rise 2x from current levels of $14 per share if its growth strategy and margin expansion plans play out. Our upside case rests on the launch of Rivian’s new mass-market SUV while improving profitability over the next few years.  Shares are already showing signs of recovery, gaining nearly 20% over the past month following a revenue beat over Q2 2025 and optimism around interest rate cuts this month. Growth and futuristic stocks like Rivian tend to react strongly to lower rates. Still, the stock trades well below its 2021 IPO price of about $130, currently trading near $14.

Headwinds have been significant, including tariffs on components sourced from Canada and Mexico, EV subsidy cuts, and heightened competition. Even so, Rivian’s Q2 revenue came in at $1.3 billion, above expectations, and U.S. sales picked up in July with volumes hitting a 10-month high, up 20% from June. The stock’s path to a possible 2x hinges on whether Rivian can turn around its fundamentals and capitalize on recent momentum. On valuation, the stock also looks moderately priced relative to the broader market, with a price-to-sales of about 3x, which is comparable to the S&P 500. For more details see: RIVN Valuation Ratios.

Image by Stan Petersen from Pixabay

Product Strategy and Partnerships

Relevant Articles
  1. Get Paid 8.5% to Buy NFLX at a 30% Discount – Here’s How
  2. What Could Send Broadcom Stock Soaring
  3. Cisco Systems Stock Can Sink, Here Is How
  4. Coeur Mining Stock’s Winning Streak May Not Be Over Yet
  5. Merck Stock: Join the Rally at a 2.1% Discount
  6. Is Wall Street Underestimating PayPal Stock’s Potential?

Rivian’s products are well-reviewed, and the company has effectively cracked the template for the EV pickup – an area where Tesla’s Cybertruck has so far generated more hype than actual traction. The long-term bull case rests on Rivian’s ability to scale beyond its niche premium models and expand reach through partnerships. Today, Rivian sells the R1T pickup and R1S SUV, both priced above $70,000. The real growth driver, however, will be the R2, a midsize SUV expected in 2026 at around $45,000, designed to take Rivian into the mass market. At the same time, Rivian is strengthening ties with Volkswagen through a joint venture that will integrate Rivian’s EV architecture and software into VW models by 2027.

Volkswagen has already invested $1 billion in Rivian, with plans to scale the partnership to $5.8 billion, pairing Rivian’s drivetrain expertise with VW’s global manufacturing base. To support this push, Rivian is expanding its Illinois facility to 215,000 units and building a Georgia plant with 400,000-unit capacity by 2028. Together, these efforts should allow Rivian to broaden its customer base, lower costs, and drive the sort of volume growth needed to transition from being a relatively niche player into a mainstream EV contender. What Will Drive Tesla’s Next Surge?

The 2x Math

Rivian’s revenues surged from $55 million in 2021 to about $4.97 billion in 2024. Between 2022 and 2024, sales were up almost 3x, translating into a compounded annual growth rate of 73% per year. Consensus projects slower growth of about 6% this year to $5.3 billion due to tariffs on auto components imports and subsidy cuts, although the Street expects sales to surge about 32% in 2026 to about $7 billion. Now, if sales actually grow by about 35% from 2026 onward, led by Rivian’s more mass-market launches such as the R2, revenues could grow to about $13 billion by 2028.

Although Rivian continues to post steep operating and net losses, the company is looking to cut costs and improve margins. For instance, the company is banking on its VW partnership and targeting to bring down the R2’s bill of materials to around $32,000 per vehicle, which could result in a considerable improvement to gross margins. At the same time, the company has also been carrying out job cuts in commercial and sales roles, which could help slash fixed costs. Now, if adjusted net margins rise to about 10% by 2028, led by higher scale and better fixed cost absorption, it would translate into net income of about $1.3 billion for FY’28. For perspective, Tesla’s net margins stood at low double-digit levels through its consolidation phase of 2021 to 2024.

The markets currently value Tesla at about 200x estimated 2025 earnings and about 12x revenues. Sure, the market views Tesla not just as another EV player but as a proxy for physical AI, with its big focus on self-driving software and emerging focus on things like humanoid robots. But Rivian, too, could be more richly valued if it executes well on its EV ramp-up. If we assume that Rivian stock would then be valued at about 25x earnings, a very small fraction of Tesla’s multiple, that would translate into a market cap of about $33 billion, or almost 2x current levels. Read RIVN Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.

The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – S&P 500, Russell, and S&P midcap. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.

Invest with Trefis Market Beating Portfolios

See all Trefis Price Estimates