How Are Roche’s Revenues And Earnings Likely To Change Over The Next Five Years?

by Trefis Team
Roche Holdings
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Roche’s (NASDAQ:RHHBY) revenues are expected to increase by $7.4 billion (net) and profits will likely grow by $5.6 billion between 2017 and 2022, per Trefis estimates. Most of this change will likely be led by its neuroscience drugs, including Ocrevus, and pipeline drugs. We expect the company’s neuroscience & other drugs sales to double in the next five years.

On the other hand, Roche’s oncology drugs will continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace. New drugs in Roche’s oncology portfolio, including Tecentriq, Perjeta, and Alecensa, among others, will likely more than offset revenue losses from MabThera, Avastin, and Herceptin, which will lose their exclusivity in the U.S. by 2019. Note that these three are blockbuster drugs for Roche that account for roughly 35% of the company-wide sales in 2017.

We have created an interactive dashboard on how Roche’s revenues, expenses, and profits will change over the next five years. You can adjust the expected segment-wise revenue and margin forecasts, and see its impact on the profitability, and earnings. Below, we have added some of the data and charts from the interactive dashboard.

Expected Change In Revenues By Division Between 2017 and 2022

Expected Change In Operating Expenses By Division Between 2017 and 2022

Expected Change In Gross Profits By Division Between 2017 and 2022

Expected Revenue Trend In Next 5 Years

Gross Profit Calculation

Net Income And Earnings Estimates

Our price estimate of $36 for Roche implies a premium of around 20% to the market.

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