Trefis Helps You Understand How a Company's Products Impact Its Stock Price

COMPANY OF THE DAY : FACEBOOK

Facebook's shown some recent improvements including stronger revenue growth in its latest earnings announcement. However this has failed to fuel the stock has uncertainty remains on its monetization effectiveness, especially on its mobile platform.

In a note today we look at the downside risks to our Facebook estimates, which include a weak mobile platform, its strained ties with Zynga and Facebook fatigue.

See Complete Analysis for Facebook
Screenshot of forecast demo
To use this tool, please upgrade Adobe Flash Player here.
Related Companies: eBay | Google | Yahoo | Amazon
 
Sign up for the complete Trefis experience.
Your Email Address:
 

Want to learn more? View a Trefis Webinar.

FORECAST OF THE DAY : TRANSOCEAN AVERAGE DAILY REVENUES

Transocean has been realigning its asset mix to focus on ultra-deepwater, and is currently the largest player with around 29 ultra-deepwater rigs. There are around 120 ultra-deepwater rigs worldwide.

Last year, Transocean divested its low-specification jack-up rigs and placed an order for four newbuild ultra-deepwater drillships that will be contracted to Royal Dutch Shell. Transocean's ultra-deepwater rigs have a utilization rate of around 94% and dayrates are typically above $500,000.

Read more...
Screenshot of forecast demo
To use this tool, please upgrade Adobe Flash Player here.

RECENT ACTIVITY ON TREFIS

DPS Logo
Can Dr Pepper Snapple's Spirit Airlines Deal Help The Stock?
  • by , 13 hours ago
  • tags: DPS KO PEP SAVE
  • Dr Pepper Snapple recently signed an agreement with Spirit Airlines, which allows it to sell Dr Pepper and Diet Dr Pepper on flights operated by Spirit Airlines. The company’s Canada Dry and  Mr and Mrs T Bloody Mary Mix brands are already available on Spirit Airlines’ Menu . In this article, we look at the potential impact of this agreement on Dr Pepper Snapple’s business. Dr Pepper Snapple is the third largest Liquid Refreshment Beverage (LRB) company in the U.S. with further presence in Canada, Mexico and the Caribbean. Dr Pepper Snapple is a market leader in the flavored carbonated soda drink (CSD) segment. Besides CSD, the company is also present in juices, ready-to-drink (RTD) teas and mineral water. Some of the company’s most valuable brands are Dr Pepper, 7UP, Canada Dry, Sunkist, Crush and Snapple.
    NFLX Logo
    Netflix's DreamWorks Deal Highlights Kids Programming And Helps Fend Off Amazon
  • by , 14 hours ago
  • tags: NFLX AMZN DIS
  • Netflix ‘s (NASDAQ:NFLX) shares jumped close to 7% on the company’s announcement of a multi-year deal with DreamWorks Animation, which will give it distribution rights to DreamWorks’ original TV series. This is the largest original content deal in Netflix’s history and showcases the importance of kids-focused programming and the company’s continued commitment in bringing in original content to its subscribers. This is also Netflix’s reply to Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), which recently struck a deal with Viacom (NASDAQ:VIAB) that will allow it to bolster kids-focused programming on the Amazon Prime streaming service. Netflix is not shying away from spending more, and it appears that the content owners are increasingly recognizing it as a must-have distribution partner.
    ORCL Logo
    Oracle's Earnings Preview: Software Sales Could Signal A Recovery
  • by , 14 hours ago
  • tags: ORCL SAP IBM HPQ
  • Oracle (NASDAQ:ORCL) will report its Q4 fiscal 2013 earnings on June 20 after the market closes. We expect the company to report muted growth as it continues to face significant challenges in its hardware business. However, its software business could get back on the growth track after a dismal performance last quarter. An improved product/services mix and a continued focus on reigning costs should reflect in higher operating margins. Oracle had a fairly slow Q3 fiscal 2o13 in terms of revenues as total revenues fell slightly y-o-y to $8.96 billion compared with $9.04 billion in the same period a year earlier. Net profit remained flat at $2.5 billion, or 52 cents a share, in Q3 2013 vis-a-vis $2.5 billion, or 49 cents a share (a higher number of shares were outstanding) in Q3 2012. For Q4, the company guides for 1-4% revenue growth. Below we discuss key factors that will influence its upcoming earnings results. We currently have a  $40 Trefis price estimate for Oracle, which stands nearly 15% above its current market price. Check out our complete analysis of Oracle Eyes On New Software Licenses and Cloud-Based Services In Q3, Oracle registered a slight decline in revenues from new software licenses as well as cloud subscriptions, which came in far below than the company’s expectations of 3%-13% growth. Cuts in IT spending by large enterprises and persistent weakness in the European market are evidently weighing on Oracle. A growing shift towards cloud computing has also been hurting its on-premise software business.  While Oracle has increased its presence in the cloud software space, its performance has lagged other market leaders like Salesforce. Cloud revenues were down 1% during the quarter even as the competitors registered double digit growth. However, strong revenue growth from software maintenance did offset some pressure as existing clients pay recurring fees for software support and updates. In Q4, Oracle anticipates new software license and cloud subscription revenue growth to be in the 1%-11% range . We will closely watch the sales of new software licenses, including its much hyped next-generation Fusion Applications. Higher new software licenses sales would indicate the corporate sector’s growing confidence in the economy. Growth in new software licenses also paves the way for recurring revenues from maintenance and support. Oracle may also announce the availability of its next-generation 12c database during the earnings call. We will also keep a close tab on the performance of its cloud-based services, which disappointed in Q3. Oracle has been looking for growth opportunities for a while now and has snapped up small companies such as Selectminds, Skire, Collective Intellect and Vitrue, among others. This has expanded its presence in the rapidly growing network virtualization and social media markets. While cloud-based software revenue remains a very small percentage of Oracle’s overall revenue, we expect it to be the key growth driver on the back of these acquisitions going forward. Hardware Business To Continue To Struggle In The Near Term Ever since Oracle acquired Sun Microsystems, it has struggled to register growth in its hardware product sales. While part of this is due to dwindling IT spending amid a weak economic environment, the separation from its once-close partner, HP, also created challenges for the company. With the acquisition of Sun Microsystems, Oracle became a direct competitor of HP. The commoditization of hardware has also been weighing on the growth as Oracle continues to focus on higher-margin systems like Exadata. Last quarter its hardware revenues plunged 23% and is expected to remain under pressure in the remaining of 2013, before seeing some improvement in 2014. Oracle is trying to own more of the high potential Big Data market with its Exalytics in-memory appliance, which competes directly with SAP’s popular HANA offering. It also launched Advanced Analytics that enables users to run scripts for business intelligence applications in its Big Data appliance. Enterprise hardware offerings like the Exalytics appliance will not only help the company ride the Big Data trend but also enable it to improve its hardware margins by phasing out older legacy hardware, launching new high-margin hardware, and bundling it with its software products. Further, with cost-cutting taking priority for many enterprises, software defined networking (SDN) is gaining traction. To gain from this trend, Oracle acquired Xsigo last year. While Xsigo is not a strict SDN platform, it is similar in the sense that it reduces the amount of switches, physical hardware and cabling required to run a network of virtual machines. Oracle last month launched its new data center fabric, integrating the Xsigo technology with its newest SPARC servers. We will look for updates on the response its new data center fabric has garnered. Understand How a Company’s Products Impact its Stock Price at Trefis
    Sizemore
    Telecoms: Great Dividends, But Their Desperation Is Showing
  • by , 16 hours ago
  • tags: T TEF AMX VOD
  • Submitted by Sizemore Investment Letter as part of our contributors program Rumors flew over the weekend that AT&T ( $ T ) had made an offer to buy Spain’s Telefonica ( $ TEF ) for $93 billion—a roughly 50% premium to today’s market cap. Telefonica was quick to dispel the rumor, and AT&T had no comment as Monday afternoon. My gut reaction is that this rumor is exactly that: a rumor.  The sheer size of the deal makes it unlikely that it would ever make it past the assorted national telecom regulators without provoking anti-trust hysteria.  AT&T is the largest telecom firm in North America, and Telefonica is a dominant player in Europe and Latin America. But while I don’t see a deal happening, the prospect does raise a few questions.   Given that mobile phones are ubiquitous in the United States, smartphones are not far from the saturation point, fixed-line telecom is in terminal decline and broadband internet and paid TV are well past the saturation point, where does a behemoth like AT&T go for growth? One obvious answer is emerging markets, which is why Telefonica was allegedly on AT&T radar screen.  Telefonica gets roughly half its revenues from Latin America, where fast internet and smartphone subscriptions are both still growth businesses. The problem is that there aren’t a lot of assets there left to buy.  The Latin American market is essentially a two-horse race between Telefonica and America Movil ( $ AMX ), the company controlled by Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim. AT&T actually already owns 9% of America Movil, making it the company’s second –largest shareholder.  This would also make it complicated for AT&T to make a serious offer for America Movil’s bitterest rival. There aren’t a lot of easy targets elsewhere either.  The European telecom giants tend to dominate in their countries’ former colonial holdings, with Telefonica being a prime example.  France Telecom ( $ FTE ) is active in 21 Middle Eastern and African countries, and Britain’s Vodafone ( $ VOD ) has most of the rest of the world covered.   Vodafone operates in 30 countries, many of which are attractive emerging markets, and has partnerships in place with local providers in over 50 more. So, an American newcomer like AT&T would be competing on price against some entrenched competition for a capital-intensive business that doesn’t have particularly great margins.  Perhaps an aggressive emerging markets growth strategy is not so attractive after all… I raised a few eyebrows earlier this year when I suggested that my favorite “tobacco stock” was semiconductor giant Intel ( INTC ) . By “tobacco stock” I was referring to companies in slow-growth industries that had high barriers to entry.  Because their growth prospects are limited, they tend to use their excess cash flows to buy back their own shares and pay out monster dividends.     This is where AT&T, Verizon ( $ VZ ) and Sprint ( $ S ) are today.  Barriers to entry are not as high in mobile telecom as they are in, say, tobacco or semiconductors.  Consider the recent success of discount providers like Metro PCS ( $ PCS ), which recently merged with T Mobile.  But given the limited spectrum available and the cost of building out a network, the current providers have little to worry about in the way of new entrants. Sprint is a train wreck right now, which is thankfully being bought out by the Japanese telco Softbank ( $ SFTBY )— a company so desperate for growth in its moribund Japanese home market that even a dog like Sprint looks attractive). But how do AT&T and Verizon look? AT&T yields 5% in dividend and is aggressively buying back its shares.  Verizon yields 4% and has not made any recent announcements regarding share repurchases. 5% and 4%, respectively, are not bad yields in this environment.  This puts the two major telecom companies about on par with triple-net REITs and MLPs. But if I have to choose between telecom stocks and REITs and MLPs, I’m taking the REITs and MLPs.  Both should benefit from an improvement in the economy, as a healthier economy means rising rents and increased energy usage.  Both are also better positioned to weather any uptick in inflation. AT&T and Verizon might also benefit from an improving economy, as more employment means more business phone and data lines and, to some extent, upselling to more expensive personal plans.  But both operated in an inherently cutthroat and deflationary business.  Quality real estate appreciates in value over time.  Telecommunication equipment does not. Bottom line: in a diversified income portfolio, there might be room for the likes of AT&T or Verizon.  But I would give a higher allocation to quality REITs and MLPs. Sizemore Capital is long TEF. This article first appeared on InvestorPlace . SUBSCRIBE to  Sizemore Insights via e-mail today.    
    S Logo
    Sprint Tries Legal Maneuvers To Prevent Dish-Clearwire Deal
  • by , 18 hours ago
  • tags: S DISH CLWR SFTBF
  • With Clearwire siding with Dish Network (NASDAQ:DISH), Sprint (NYSE:S) has filed a lawsuit against the two seeking to block the satellite-TV provider’s proposed offer for Clearwire’s shares. The third-largest wireless carrier in the U.S. said that Dish’s tender offer is a violation of not only the corporate law in Delaware where Sprint is situated, but also of its own as well as other shareholders’ corporate governance rights in Clearwire. It also contends that Dish’s offer cannot go through without the approval of at least 75% of Clearwire’s voting shareholders and Comcast – neither of which has been obtained yet. The lawsuit comes just days before Clearwire’s shareholder meeting scheduled for June 24, and is likely a response to the unanimous backing that Clearwire’s board has provided to Dish’s offer. At the outset, dragging Dish and Clearwire to court seems a smart way to get Clearwire’s board to approve a Sprint merger without going into a bidding war. The fact that the lawsuit concerns a complex corporate governance agreement means that a court resolution of the conflict could take months or even years — time that Clearwire doesn’t have. Without a financing agreement or a takeover, Clearwire has announced that it could run out of cash early next year. Bankruptcy proceedings have seldom been in favor of public shareholders, something that Clearwire’s minority shareholders are well aware of. Sprint seems to be counting on the fact that the certainty and immediacy of the deal that it brings to the table, in the wake of its recently filed lawsuit, might tilt the scales in its favor. See our complete analysis for Sprint Cash Crunch For Sprint Makes Bidding War Unlikely Clearwire has been an interesting takeover candidate in the past few months with both SoftBank (through Sprint) and Dish looking to use the smaller carrier’s spectrum hoard to further their wireless ambitions and diversify away from their respective stagnant businesses. While Dish wants to bundle its existing pay-TV service with a wireless one, SoftBank is betting on the future of LTE and its ability to derive greater synergies out of running similar networks in the U.S. and Japan. Clearwire’s spectrum is central to both their plans, but gaining control of the same without Sprint on board will be tough because Sprint is Clearwire’s majority shareholder with over 50% stake. Dish is therefore looking to acquire at least 25% of Clearwire’s stock through an aggressive bid and make it tougher for Sprint to take full control of the company. Dish has also placed a competing offer for Sprint but with Sprint’s board as well as its largest shareholder unanimously backing SoftBank’s recently revised bid, it seems as though the door has shut on Dish unless it can come up with a vastly improved offer. SoftBank’s new bid however limits Sprint’s ability to make aggressive acquisitions since it will receive about $3 billion less cash than previously – cash that is instead being offered to shareholders to make it more lucrative for them to approve the deal. (see  SoftBank Nears Deal For Sprint But Clearwire’s Fate Still Uncertain ) CapEx Reduction and Margin Improvement Key For Sprint At the same time, Sprint is trying to conserve cash for its Network Vision Plan, which is seeing large-scale LTE deployment and the shutdown of iDEN. The project has already cost Sprint over $4.4 billion in the last three quarters and will see another almost $6 billion being invested in the rest of the year. As can be seen below, these capital expenditures are much higher than what Sprint has historically spent. Moreover, Sprint is highly sensitive to CapEx increases, which can be seen by moving the trend line in the forecast chart above and following the corresponding impact on its price estimate. It is therefore very important that Sprint acquires additional spectrum from Clearwire, which could go a long way in lowering future CapEx spend on capacity increases. Clearwire’s spectrum will also allow a SoftBank-backed Sprint to leverage the cost efficiencies of running similar networks in two different countries. Clearwire is using its spectrum to lay out a TD-LTE network (as opposed to the FD-LTE network that is widely used in the U.S.) – the same variety of LTE technology that powers Softbank’s 4G network in Japan. This will allow the new Sprint to negotiate not only better mobile device deals with manufacturers but also better bulk equipment deals with wireless networking vendors, thereby improving margins and CapEx requirements in the long run. Margin improvement is also one of the key goals of Sprint’s Network Vision plan – a successful implementation of which will help reduce operating expenses substantially by eliminating duplicate fixed costs of maintaining different networks. It will also allow for better 3G/4G coverage and reduce roaming costs as the spectrum previously used for iDEN will now be available for the CDMA/LTE network. Also, since 4G LTE is more efficient at handling data, Sprint will be able to realize the margin benefits as it rolls out in new LTE markets and more people adopt the high-speed technology. Understand How a Company’s Products Impact its Stock Price at Trefis
    CME Logo
    CME, NASDAQ And ICE Are Ready To Wrangle For European Market Share
  • by , 19 hours ago
  • tags: CME NYX NDAQ ICE
  • Subject to securing an approval from British regulators, the CME Group (NASDAQ:CME) plans to launch its European futures market in London on September 9, according to the Wall Street Journal. The new exchange will initially offer 30 currency futures contracts and will later branch out into contracts based on equities, interest rates and commodity prices. The announcement comes soon after NASDAQ OMX (NASDAQ:NDAQ) launched its own London-based futures exchange late last month. NASDAQ’s exchange is christened NLX and aims to offer “a range of both short-term interest rate (STIRs) and long-term interest rate (LTIRs) euro- and sterling-denominated listed derivative products on a single market,” according to the company’s press release. The two new exchanges will challenge the duopoly of NYSE Liffe and the Deutsche Borse, which together hold over 90% of market share in the rapidly growing European derivatives market. Hence, it seems that this market is set to see intense competition in the coming months – especially when the IntercontinentalExchange (NYSE:ICE) enters the race after its acquisition of NYSE Euronext (NYSE:NYX). We believe that the IntercontinentalExchange will have a slight advantage over the CME Group and NASDAQ OMX in the race to gain market share in this market because of its acquisition of NYSE Euronext. See our full analysis for The CME Group | NASDAQ OMX | NYSE Euronext The London Derivatives Market Is A Huge Opportunity While there is no consensus on how big the global derivatives market is, it can be said for sure that it is much larger than the worldwide equity and bond markets combined. According to a McKinsey & Company estimate, the total value of the world’s capital stock, which includes equity market capitalization and outstanding loans and bonds, was just around $212 trillion in 2010. In contrast, estimates for the global derivatives market size vary widely from $600 trillion to 1,500 trillion . However, only a small portion of these derivatives (16% according to an undated Deutsche Borse white paper) are traded on exchanges. The majority of trading in derivative contracts actually takes place over-the-counter (OTC) – a way of bilaterally trading instruments without any regulatory hassles. This proportion is soon going to change because regulators around the globe deem that OTC trading of derivatives is too risky in the wake of the mortgage crisis of 2008. In 2009, the G20 nations called for centralized trading of standardized OTC derivatives, and since then regulations similar to the Dodd-Frank Act are being implemented worldwide. While Japan has already implemented such regulations, the Dodd-Frank Act in the U.S. and the European Market Infrastructure Regulation (EMIR) in Europe will make centralized clearing of OTC derivatives mandatory for all eligible parties, latest by the end of 2013. This will ensure that a lot of derivative trading, that earlier took place over-the-counter will now be pushed onto exchanges or similar electronic platforms. This is a big opportunity for the world’s largest securities exchanges, which are stung by low equity trading volumes and are looking for alternative sources of revenue. At $633 trillion at the end of 2012, the size of the global OTC derivatives market significantly overshadows the world equity markets, which were valued at $55 trillion by the World Federation of Exchanges in 2012. An exchange that is able to capture derivative volumes when these OTC contracts start trading electronically will be set for rapid revenue growth that will more than offset the revenue decline due to sluggish equity trading volumes. However for that to happen these exchanges must have a presence in London, which is the world’s largest financial center and accounts for 46% of the global OTC interest rate derivatives market, the largest segment in OTC derivatives. Given these facts, it is no surprise that all major U.S. exchanges are racing to set up derivatives exchanges in London. Does Not Mean That Each Player Has An Equal Chance Of Winning Although the whole derivatives segment is set for rapid growth, we believe that all players in the market do not have an equal chance of gaining market dominance. The CME Group and NASDAQ OMX are just entering the London-based derivatives market and have the task of setting up their businesses from ground up. On the other hand, the IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) is in the process of acquiring NYSE Euronext and will assume the role of the market leader immediately after the deal closes in Q3 2013. Once complete, the NYSE Euronext acquisition will add LIFFE to the IntercontinentalExchange’s armory. LIFFE (short for “London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange”) is NYSE Euronext’s international derivatives business which operates derivative markets in each of Amsterdam, Brussels, Lisbon, Paris and London. As mentioned above, it enjoys a virtual duopoly in the European derivatives market along with the Deutsche Borse and will immediately propel the IntercontinentalExchange into a leadership position in the European derivatives market. Further, LIFFE’s offerings complement IntercontinentalExchange’s clearing platform and will allow the combined entity to launch innovative contracts in multiple asset classes. This will ensure that the IntercontinentalExchange keeps flooding the market with new and innovative products in the coming years. Submit a Post at Trefis Powered by Data and Interactive Charts | Understand What Drives a Stock at Trefis
    MS Logo
    Three Ways Morgan Stanley Can Grow Its Wealth Management Business
  • by , 19 hours ago
  • tags: MS GS UBS WFC
  • At a recent investor event, the head of Morgan Stanley’s (NYSE:MS) wealth and asset management business Greg Fleming, detailed a three-point strategy aimed at increasing the profitability of the investment bank’s wealth management operations. Targeting a pre-tax margin of 17% for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management (MSWM) by mid-2013, Fleming reached the figure two quarters in advance and is now setting his sights on pushing the margin figure towards 20%. He intends to achieve this by getting advisers to cross-sell more bank products, by providing more “managed account” products and by offering capital market services to wealthy clients looking to raise money. To facilitate faster growth, MSWM will also spend half a billion dollars to improve its technology over the rest of the year so that clients have better access to its banking services. We have pointed out on numerous occasions in the past, Morgan Stanley’s performance over recent quarters demonstrates a fundamental shift in its business model – from one relying almost completely on sales & trading to the balanced one it is now, thanks to the emphasis on generating steady revenues by focusing on its wealth management business. The continuing focus on the profitability of its wealth management business is no doubt good news as it holds the promise of considerable upside to the investment bank’s value.
    INTC Logo
    Intel's x86 Servers Will Dominate But ARM's Entry Will Take Share
  • by , 19 hours ago
  • tags: INTC QCOM BRCM TXN
  • In addition to the PC microprocessor market, Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) is also the leading player in the server microprocessor space. Servers manage large amounts of data, direct data traffic, perform complex transactions, and control central functions in local and wide area networks, and on the Internet. With the rapid growth in online data processing, the server market is a fast growing division. Intel sells its processors directly to server manufacturers such as IBM, Dell, HP, etc. Intel’s server processors are based on the x86 architecture which is the predominant platform in the global server market. Its x86 servers are primarily used as a platform for large scale data center buildouts. AMD is the only player that competes with Intel in the x86 server domain, but Intel has a substantial lead over the former in terms of market share based on server shipments. With the ARM-technology based processors expected to enter the server market next year, will the competition for Intel heat up? While many believe that with Intel’s technology prowess and manufacturing leadership the company has nothing to worry about, there are others that feel that the increasing demand for low power processors and ARM’s leadership in developing the same will enable the company to take some of Intel’s server market share. We believe that Intel will continue to account for a majority share in the server market for years to come. However, we think that as more ARM-based players enter the server market, the company could see a slight decline in its market share in the future. See our complete analysis for Intel What Are The Factors Driving Growth In The Sever Market? Cloud computing, server virtualization, rapid rise in the number of connected devices and strong growth in the HPC market are key trends driving global server demand. We estimate global server shipments to increase from 9.6 million units in 2012 to over 15 million units by the end of our review period. Here are some figures supporting our view: - With increasing worldwide Internet penetration, the global IP traffic has increased eightfold over the past five years and is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 29% from 2011 to 2016. Enterprise Internet traffic is expected to grow at an annual rate of 18%. - Research firm Forrester projects the global market for cloud computing to increase from $41 billion in 2011 to $241 billion by 2020. - The global high performance computing market is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 8.3%, reaching $44 billion by 2020. Intel’s x86 Platform Is The Dominant Architecture For Servers Historically, strong demand for x86 servers have been the predominant factor fueling global server shipments. x86 servers account for over 80% of total server shipments and their revenue contribution increased from 53.6% in 2007 to 68.2% in 2012. Global Server Market 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Total Server Shipments (Mil) 8.8 9.1 7.6 8.9 9.5 9.7 X86 Server Shipments (%) 84.7% 84.9% 87.8% 87.1% 84.3% 82.8% Total Server Revenue ($ Bil) 54.8 52.6 43.1 48.9 52.8 52.5 X86 Server Revenue (%) 53.6% 52.9% 57.6% 65.3% 65.2% 68.2% Sources: Gartner & IDC Press Releases Dominating the high end and high value server segments, Intel accounts for more than 95% of the global x86 server shipments. The company continues to expand its server offering by refreshing its product line across all ranges of performance, performance per watt, and performance per watt per dollar. At IDF Beijing this year, Intel announced its next-generation Atom processor (Avoton) for the microserver segment of the market and its Ivy Bridge product for Xeon cloud servers. Both products will start shipping in the latter part of 2013 and will increase its leadership in the market. (In USD Million) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 X86 Server Shipment 7.5 7.7 7.6 8.9 9.5 9.7 Intel’s Share in x86 Servers 85.4% 86.6% 89.9% 93% 94.5% 95.6% Competition from ARM Can Reduce Intel’s Server Market Share ARM-technology based servers will start shipping in 2014. ARM Holdings is working with TSMC to optimize its ARM v8 64-bit architecture, aiming to launch SoCs at 20nm and moving toward 15nm in the near future. The processors include TSMC’s finFET technology that are said to be higher performing and more energy-efficient than the current chips. The low-power chips will leverage 3D transistor technologies similar to Intel’s Tri-Gate architecture. So far ARM’s designs only support 32-bit computing. However, with the introduction of ARM v8, the company’s designs not only get 64-bit compatibility but also have additional features that are important to data center environments. AMD is in the process of designing ARM technology based processors in addition to its x86 processors for multiple markets, starting with cloud and data center servers. The new generation server products will start production in 2014. HP and Dell have already built prototype servers with low-power ARM cores. AMD believes that ARM CPUs have the potential to account for 20% of the server market by 2016 or 2017. ARM CPUs are cheaper and ship in higher volumes as compared to more expensive x86 chips. Data centers around the world are supporting millions of users with servers running massive numbers of parallel workloads that need the type of small-core chips that ARM, along with its partners, is known for manufacturing. Our $27.58 price estimate for Intel is at a premium of around 10% to the current market price. Understand How a Company’s Products Impact its Stock Price at Trefis
    LNKD Logo
    Drivers To LinkedIn's Growth In Monthly Unique Visitors
  • by , 20 hours ago
  • tags: LNKD MWW FB
  • LinkedIn ‘s (NASDAQ:LNKD) ‘average monthly unique visitors’ have increased from around 16 million in 2008 to 123 million in 2012. This is an important metric as it not only determines the company’s advertisement related revenues, but is also indicative of its overall success as well as growth in other business segments such as premium account subscriptions. We believe that the company will continue to see healthy growth in this figure as it expands in international markets including Europe, South America, Asia and the Middle East. LinkedIn recently crossed 20 million members in India. The milestone showcases LinkedIn’s growing popularity in the country as well as Asia-Pacific, which holds large potential for its future growth. Let’s take a look at some of the factors that will drive growth in LinkedIn’s site traffic.
    Trading NRG Logo
    Gold and Silver Outlook for June 18
  • by , 20 hours ago
  • tags: ABX NEM SLW GLD SLV
  • Submitted by Trading NRG as part of our contributors program . Gold and silver prices haven’t dome much in the past several days as precious metals traders are waiting for to see what the Fed will do next. Today the FOMC meeting will commence will conclude tomorrow with a statement and press conference. Will the Fed decide to change its current policy? Its economic outlook? If so, how will it affect precious metals markets? In a recent article I review the possible outcomes and the potential effect they may have on gold and silver rates. Until tomorrow the low volatility of bullion is likely to persist. On today’s agenda: GB CPI, German ZEW economic sentiment, Inflation Report Hearings, Bank of England Inflation Report, U.S. Housing Starts and building permits monthly report, Japanese Trade balance and U.S core CPI. On Monday, gold slightly fell by 0.33% to $1,383; Silver also slipped by 0.89% to $21.76. During June, gold declined by 0.69%; silver, by 2.11%. The gold and silver futures volumes of trade have declined on Friday to 106 thousand and 52 thousand, respectively – the lowest volume of trade in the past several days. This low volume might pick up tomorrow if the Fed will announce or make any change to its current policy, which will impact precious metals. If the volume will rise in the coming days, this could lead to an increase in volatility of precious metals. On Today’s Agenda German ZEW economic sentiment: In April, the ZEW indicator for Germany edged up to 36.4 points; if Germany’s economic sentiment will rally, the Euro will plausibly strengthen against the USD; U.S. Housing Starts: this report was historically correlated with gold – as housing starts fell, gold tended to rise the next day (even when controlling to the U.S dollar effect); in the recent monthly report, the adjusted annual rate reached 853,000 in April 2013, which was 16.5% below March’s rate; U.S Core CPI: according to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics, during April, the CPI declined by 0.4% ; the core CPI inched up by 0.1%; the core index rose over the past twelve months by 1.7%; Japanese Trade balance: In April 2013 the Japanese trade balance deficit fell by 16.9% compared to March, and reach 764 billion yen (roughly $7.79 billion) deficit (seasonally adjusted figures). This is drop in deficit was due to the drop in imports (by 2.4%) and the fact that exports remained flat; For further reading: Gold and Silver Prices Outlook for June 17-21 Is the Golden Era of Gold Over?
    Find us on Facebook

    — REQUEST COVERAGE —

    Every month, Trefis analysts create a model for the most requested company. Cast your vote today!

    Submit

    You can also view our Full Coverage List.

    — TODAY'S TREFIS QUIZ —

    Which product segment contributes the most to Nike's stock value?
    1. NIke Brand Apparel
    2. Nike Brand Footwear
    3. Nike Brand Equipment
    4. Nike Golf

    — GET TREFIS UPDATES —

    MIT ENGINEERS & WALL STREET ANALYSTS GOT TOGETHER TO CREATE TREFIS

    – AS FEATURED IN –

    "Aims right at individual investors,
    giving them sophisticated models"

    "an easy tool for understanding what
    makes a company tick"

    "change the underlying assumptions by
    simply dragging lines on charts"

    "a very cool, very intelligently
    designed financial analytics tool"

    FOR INVESTORS
    FOR EXPERTS
    FOR COMPANIES

    Rigorous & Quantitative

    Led by MIT engineers and former Wall Street professionals, the Trefis team builds a model for each company's stock price.

    Fun & Easy-to-Understand

    In a single snapshot we show you the relative importance of products that comprise a company's stock price.

    Play with Assumptions

    You can personalize any forecast using your local knowledge or expertise to build conviction in your own stock price estimate.

    Consult with Experts

    You can ask questions and vet your opinions on specific forecasts with experts and friends.

    Interact with other experts

    Stay abreast with opinions and predictions from peers.

    Predict Trends

    Share your own opinions, identify and predict trends.

    Monetize Your Expertise (coming soon!)

    Get paid for sharing your opinion.

    Attract the best investors, employees, and business partners.

    Want Trefis to provide coverage of your company? Contact us at admin@trefis.com with email subject - "Interest in coverage"

    – SIGN UP FOR FREE –
    Sign Up for Trefis for FREE

    Get free access to core companies and features.

    Sign Up for Trefis Pro!

    Get access to additional companies and features.

    Already a Member?

    Log in to your Trefis account.