QXO Stock Falls -12% In 6-Day Spree On William Blair Estimate Cut
QXO (QXO) stock hit day 6-day losing streak, with cumulative losses over this period amounting to a -12%. The company market cap has crashed by about $1.9 Bil over the last 6 days, and currently stands at $14 Bil.
The stock has delivered a 25.5% return over the past year, outperforming the S&P 500’s 16.7% gain. This outperformance warrants a re-evaluation of the stock’s valuation to determine whether it represents an attractive opportunity or a potential trap.
What Triggered The Slide?
[1] William Blair Q4 Estimate Cut
- Robinhood Stock: The Multiple Tells The Wrong Story
- How ISRG Just Secured The U.S. Market
- How UNH Stock Is Trading Short-Term Margins For Long-Term Moats
- Key Metrics To Track For Capital One After Its Q1 Earnings Miss
- Marvell Stock: The Good News Keeps Coming
- Fifth Third Earnings: Adjusted EPS Beats Despite Revenue Miss And Acquisition.
- Q4 EBITDA estimate cut to $152M, below $203M consensus
- Survey showed a 10% YoY decline for roofing distributors in Q4
- Impact: Stock fell 8.3% after the report, Negative investor sentiment
[2] Truist Securities Price Target Reduction
- Price target lowered to $26 from $28
- Cited weakness in repair and remodeling market
- Impact: Increased market pressure, Heightened concerns over market weakness
Opportunity or Trap?
Below is our take on valuation.
There are only a couple of things to fear in QXO stock given its overall Moderate operating performance and financial condition. This is aligned with the stock’s Moderate valuation because of which we think it is Fairly Priced (For details, see Buy or Sell QXO).
But here is the real interesting point.
You are reading about this -12% move after it happened. The market has already priced in the news. To avoid the next loser before the headlines, you need predictive signals, not notifications. Our High Quality Portfolio has a risk model designed to reduce exposure to losers.
Returns vs S&P 500
The following table summarizes the return for QXO stock vs. the S&P 500 index over different periods, including the current streak:
| Return Period | QXO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1D | -8.3% | -0.7% |
| 6D (Current Streak) | -12.2% | -0.5% |
| 1M (21D) | 5.2% | 0.5% |
| 3M (63D) | 3.3% | 2.0% |
| YTD 2025 | 21.3% | 16.4% |
| 2024 | -86.1% | 23.3% |
| 2023 | 508.5% | 24.2% |
| 2022 | -33.8% | -19.4% |
Take a look at what history tells you about whether past dips like this have been buying opportunities or traps: QXO Dip Buyer Analysis.
Gains and Losses Streaks: S&P 500 Constituents
There are currently 6 S&P constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive gains and 204 constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive losses.
| Consecutive Days | # of Gainers | # of Losers |
|---|---|---|
| 3D | 3 | 110 |
| 4D | 1 | 81 |
| 5D | 2 | 4 |
| 6D | 0 | 9 |
| 7D or more | 0 | 0 |
| Total >=3 D | 6 | 204 |
Key Financials for QXO (QXO)
Last 2 Fiscal Years:
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $54.5 Mil | $56.9 Mil |
| Operating Income | $-1.3 Mil | $-71.0 Mil |
| Net Income | $-1.1 Mil | $28.0 Mil |
Last 2 Fiscal Quarters:
| Metric | 2025 FQ2 | 2025 FQ3 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $1.9 Bil | $2.7 Bil |
| Operating Income | $-162.1 Mil | $25.8 Mil |
| Net Income | $-58.5 Mil | $-139.4 Mil |
The losing streak QXO stock is currently on doesn’t inspire much confidence among investors. In contrast, Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.