How To Trade Pfizer Stock Ahead of Its Upcoming Earnings?

Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) is scheduled to report its earnings on Tuesday, August 5, 2025, before the market opens. Analysis of Pfizer’s stock performance over the past five years following earnings announcements reveals a tendency for positive movement. In 53% of instances, PFE stock has seen a positive one-day return after results are announced. The median positive return has been 3.2%, with a maximum one-day gain of 6.1%.

For event-driven traders, understanding these historical patterns can provide a strategic edge, though actual results compared to consensus and expectations will be the ultimate determinant. Traders can approach this in two ways:

• Pre-Earnings Positioning: Evaluate the historical odds and position themselves in the stock prior to the earnings release.
• Post-Earnings Positioning: Observe the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns after the earnings are released to inform their subsequent trading decisions.

The consensus analyst estimate for the upcoming quarter is earnings of $0.58 per share on sales of $13.53 billion. This compares to earnings of $0.60 per share on sales of $13.28 billion in the same quarter of the previous year.

Looking at the fundamentals, Pfizer has a current market capitalization of $132 billion. Over the last twelve months, the company generated $62 billion in revenue and maintained operational profitability, with $15 billion in operating profits and a net income of $7.9 billion.

That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.

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Pfizer’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 53% of the time.
• Notably, this percentage increases to 55% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 10 positive returns = 3.2%, and median of the 9 negative returns = -1.4%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

PFE 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return

Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

PFE Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?

Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Pfizer stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Pfizer. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.

PFE Correlation With Peer Earnings

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