Time To Buy The Dip In Oscar Health Stock?
Oscar Health stock has fallen by 25.0% in less than a month, from levels of $21.44 on 6/30/2025 to $16.08 now. Should you buy this dip? Dip buying is a viable strategy for quality stocks when broad market conditions are favorable, provided that the stock has a history of recovering from dips.
As it turns out, not only does Oscar Health pass basic fundamental quality checks, but it has also returned (on average) -21% in one year, and 36% as peak return following sharp dips (>30% in 30 days) historically. That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | -19.9% |
| 3M | -8.7% |
| 6M | -31.3% |
| 12M | 5.1% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
OSCR had 7 events since 1/1/2020 where the dip threshold of -30% within 30 days was triggered
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- 30% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 83 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -67% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | OSCR Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | OSCR | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | 5% | 30% | -67% | 83 | ||||
| 11072024 | -33% | 4% | 18% | 56% | -15% | 235 | ||
| 6282024 | -30% | 3% | 5% | 47% | -27% | 83 | ||
| 9262022 | -38% | -14% | 14% | 101% | -55% | 260 | ||
| 5092022 | -32% | -12% | 5% | 22% | -67% | 98 | ||
| 11122021 | -31% | 8% | -77% | 0% | -81% | 0 | ||
| 7202021 | -32% | 2% | -74% | 3% | -80% | 1 | ||
| 4212021 | -35% | 8% | -61% | 30% | -74% | 47 | ||
Oscar Health Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 54.2% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 59.0% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 12.1% | Pass |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | 7.0 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 125.4 |
Dip buying, while attractive, needs to be evaluated carefully from multiple angles. Such multi-factor analysis is exactly how we construct Trefis portfolio strategies. If you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.