How Will O’Reilly Automotive Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
O’Reilly Automotive (NASDAQ:ORLY) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. The company has $78 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $18 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $3.5 Bil in operating profits and net income of $2.5 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
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O’Reilly Automotive’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 50% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 36% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 10 positive returns = 3.2%, and median of the 10 negative returns = -3.8%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/4/2026 | -4.0% | -2.7% | -2.2% |
| 10/22/2025 | -2.9% | -6.6% | -2.2% |
| 7/23/2025 | 2.9% | 4.2% | 7.8% |
| 4/23/2025 | -2.1% | 2.5% | -1.1% |
| 2/5/2025 | -1.3% | -1.8% | -2.2% |
| 10/23/2024 | 0.0% | -3.1% | 0.5% |
| 7/24/2024 | 4.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% |
| 4/24/2024 | -3.5% | -8.0% | -10.7% |
| 2/7/2024 | -4.3% | -1.7% | 1.6% |
| 10/25/2023 | 5.3% | 8.1% | 12.8% |
| 7/26/2023 | -4.8% | -4.9% | -3.2% |
| 4/26/2023 | 2.4% | 4.2% | 4.6% |
| 2/8/2023 | 3.8% | 9.4% | 4.1% |
| 10/26/2022 | 4.6% | 4.8% | 10.1% |
| 7/27/2022 | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.5% |
| 4/27/2022 | -12.6% | -11.9% | -10.4% |
| 2/9/2022 | 2.8% | 6.0% | 5.4% |
| 10/27/2021 | -4.0% | -4.5% | -2.3% |
| 7/28/2021 | -2.2% | -0.6% | -1.5% |
| 4/28/2021 | 3.4% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 10 | 11 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 3.2% | 5.4% | 4.6% |
| Median Negative | -3.8% | -3.8% | -2.2% |
| Max Positive | 5.3% | 9.4% | 12.8% |
| Max Negative | -12.6% | -11.9% | -10.7% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 44.8% | 2.1% | -24.0% |
| 3Y History | 22.8% | 40.4% | 5.5% |
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