How Will IES Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
IES (NASDAQ:IESC) is set to report its earnings on Friday, May 1, 2026. The company has $11 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $3.5 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $408 Mil in operating profits and net income of $341 Mil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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IES’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 16 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 7 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 56% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 70% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 9 positive returns = 7.1%, and median of the 7 negative returns = -2.5%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 1/30/2026 | -19.9% | -13.8% | 5.8% |
| 8/1/2025 | -0.8% | -4.9% | -1.1% |
| 5/2/2025 | 12.6% | 18.4% | 24.8% |
| 2/4/2025 | -2.4% | 4.4% | -21.5% |
| 11/22/2024 | 2.8% | 14.6% | -21.4% |
| 8/2/2024 | 7.1% | 15.0% | 29.0% |
| 5/3/2024 | 17.9% | 30.2% | 7.3% |
| 12/7/2023 | 4.9% | 18.8% | 8.7% |
| 8/4/2023 | 14.8% | 20.3% | 31.2% |
| 5/10/2023 | 11.0% | 9.8% | 18.4% |
| 12/6/2022 | 4.0% | -7.3% | 3.4% |
| 8/4/2022 | -2.8% | -0.6% | -9.6% |
| 4/29/2022 | -17.1% | -27.0% | -11.8% |
| 12/3/2021 | -2.5% | 1.1% | 5.4% |
| 8/5/2021 | -2.5% | -4.1% | -9.6% |
| 4/30/2021 | 3.6% | 1.7% | 4.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 10 | 10 |
| # Negative | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 7.1% | 14.8% | 8.0% |
| Median Negative | -2.5% | -6.1% | -10.7% |
| Max Positive | 17.9% | 30.2% | 31.2% |
| Max Negative | -19.9% | -27.0% | -21.5% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 7.8% | -20.7% | -56.0% |
| 3Y History | -35.0% | -24.4% | -43.7% |
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