How Will Ares Management Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Ares Management (NYSE:ARES) is set to report its earnings on Friday, May 1, 2026. The company has $25 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $5.6 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $893 Mil in operating profits and net income of $527 Mil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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Ares Management’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 47% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 36% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 9 positive returns = 3.2%, and median of the 10 negative returns = -2.1%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/5/2026 | -11.2% | 0.1% | -19.8% |
| 11/3/2025 | -1.6% | -1.4% | 4.9% |
| 8/1/2025 | -1.5% | 0.8% | -3.4% |
| 5/5/2025 | -0.7% | 7.3% | 5.1% |
| 2/5/2025 | -2.9% | -4.6% | -21.5% |
| 11/1/2024 | -1.4% | 5.3% | 8.1% |
| 8/2/2024 | -6.6% | -6.8% | -1.9% |
| 5/2/2024 | 2.2% | 5.3% | 6.4% |
| 2/8/2024 | 5.2% | 6.1% | 4.1% |
| 10/31/2023 | 3.2% | 6.3% | 13.9% |
| 8/1/2023 | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.7% |
| 4/28/2023 | 5.0% | -4.7% | 2.1% |
| 2/9/2023 | -2.5% | -2.2% | -12.9% |
| 10/27/2022 | 2.7% | 6.2% | 8.7% |
| 7/28/2022 | 8.0% | 11.5% | 18.3% |
| 4/28/2022 | -6.7% | -2.5% | 2.4% |
| 2/11/2022 | -0.7% | -1.8% | -13.1% |
| 10/27/2021 | 4.1% | 4.6% | -0.8% |
| 7/29/2021 | 1.6% | 4.4% | 6.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 12 | 12 |
| # Negative | 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 3.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% |
| Median Negative | -2.1% | -2.5% | -12.9% |
| Max Positive | 8.0% | 11.5% | 18.3% |
| Max Negative | -11.2% | -6.8% | -21.5% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -31.6% | 27.0% | 7.1% |
| 3Y History | -37.1% | 39.8% | 25.8% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Ares Management stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Ares Management. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| ARES Earnings Dates | ARES | BX |
| 2/5/2026 | -11.2% | -11.3% |
| 11/3/2025 | -1.6% | -6.0% |
| 8/1/2025 | -1.5% | -4.3% |
| 5/5/2025 | -0.7% | 5.1% |
| 2/5/2025 | -2.9% | -1.6% |
| 11/1/2024 | -1.4% | -0.4% |
| 8/2/2024 | -6.6% | -1.9% |
| 5/2/2024 | 2.2% | -0.4% |
| 2/8/2024 | 5.2% | 4.3% |
| 10/31/2023 | 3.2% | -1.1% |
| 8/1/2023 | 3.1% | -0.6% |
| 4/28/2023 | 5.0% | -1.9% |
| 2/9/2023 | -2.5% | -1.2% |
| 10/27/2022 | 2.7% | 11.2% |
| 7/28/2022 | 8.0% | 4.7% |
| 4/28/2022 | -6.7% | -3.8% |
| 2/11/2022 | -0.7% | 4.9% |
| 10/27/2021 | 4.1% | 3.0% |
| 7/29/2021 | 1.6% | 6.0% |
| CORRELATION | -0.7% |
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