Oracle Stock Near Crucial Support – Buy Signal?
Oracle (ORCL) stock should be on your watchlist. Here is why – it is currently trading in the support zone ($146.94 – $162.40), levels from which it has bounced meaningfully before. In the last 10 years, Oracle stock received buying interest at this level 3 times and subsequently went on to generate 51.9% in average peak returns.
| Peak Return | Days to Peak Return | |
|---|---|---|
| 9/10/2024 | 23.7% | 72 |
| 1/13/2025 | 21.1% | 10 |
| 5/23/2025 | 111.0% | 110 |
Yet, a support zone alone isn’t enough; rebounds are more likely when fundamentals, sentiment, and market conditions line up. How does that look for ORCL?
Likely Rebound Amidst Cloud/AI Growth & Analyst Targets
Oracle’s substantial $500 billion cloud backlog, fueled by contracted AI demand, underpins strong fiscal 2026 revenue guidance and over 20% EPS growth expectations. Despite concerns regarding its $45-50 billion debt/equity capital raise for OCI expansion and associated dilution, analysts maintain a “Moderate Buy” consensus with an average target price significantly above current levels. While recent capex has pressured operating margins, the strategic investment into AI infrastructure positions Oracle within a major industry tailwind, suggesting current weakness near support may be an attractive entry given long-term growth prospects. Recent price drops, potentially driven by layoff reports and financing details, appear to have priced in some skepticism.
How Do ORCL Financials Look Right Now?
- Revenue Growth: 11.1% LTM and 9.8% last 3-year average.
- Cash Generation: Nearly -21.6% free cash flow margin and 31.9% operating margin LTM.
- Recent Revenue Shocks: The minimum annual revenue growth in the last 3 years for ORCL was 6.4%.
- Valuation: ORCL stock trades at a PE multiple of 28.7
| ORCL | S&P Median | |
|---|---|---|
| Sector | Information Technology | – |
| Industry | Application Software | – |
| PE Ratio | 28.7 | 24.6 |
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| LTM* Revenue Growth | 11.1% | 6.4% |
| 3Y Average Annual Revenue Growth | 9.8% | 5.6% |
| Min Annual Revenue Growth Last 3Y | 6.4% | 0.3% |
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| LTM* Operating Margin | 31.9% | 18.8% |
| 3Y Average Operating Margin | 30.8% | 18.3% |
| LTM* Free Cash Flow Margin | -21.6% | 14.0% |
*LTM: Last Twelve Months | For more details on ORCL fundamentals, read Buy or Sell ORCL Stock.
And What If The Support Breaks?
Oracle isn’t immune to big drops, even with solid fundamentals. It plunged nearly 77% in the Dot-Com crash and fell over 40% in both the Global Financial Crisis and the Inflation Shock. The 2018 correction and Covid pandemic triggered smaller but still significant dips around 19% and 29%. It shows that no matter how strong a company looks, sharp sell-offs can hit hard when markets turn sour.
Still not sure about ORCL stock? Consider the portfolio approach.
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