INTU Could Deliver 30% Returns And Outperform ORCL
We Forecast Higher Stock Return For Intuit vs. Its Competitor Oracle
Oracle is trading at a more expensive P/S valuation vs Intuit but it makes sense to pay less for Intuit for higher return.
| ORCL | INTU | |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | 699.7 | 225.8 |
| LTM Revenue | 55.8 | 18.2 |
| Current P/S | 12.5 | 12.4 |
| Current P/EBIT | 40.5 | 49.3 |
| Stock Return Forecast (3Y) | 8.6% | 30.1% |
P/S = Price to Sales | P/EBIT = Price to earnings before interest and taxes | Current = as of date: 7/30/2025 | LTM = Last 12 months
Running growth and valuation scenarios based on historical trends is one way to assess stocks. Trefis High Quality Portfolio evaluates much more, and is designed to reduce stock-specific risk while giving upside exposure
3-Year Return Depends On [1] Revenue Growth [2] P/S
| ORCL | INTU | |
|---|---|---|
| LTM Revenue | 55.8 | 18.2 |
| x Annual Revenue Growth | 7.3% | 10.6% |
| = Revenue Forecast (3Y) | 68.9 | 24.6 |
| x PS Forecast | 11.0 | 11.9 |
| = Market Cap Forecast (3Y) | 760.2 | 293.8 |
| Market Cap Today | 699.7 | 225.8 |
| Stock Return Forecast (3Y) | 8.6% | 30.1% |
P/S = Price to Sales | P/EBIT = Price to earnings before interest and taxes | Current = as of date: 7/30/2025 | LTM = Last 12 months
How Much Can Revenue Grow In Next 3 Years
We forecast annual revenue growth of 7.3% for ORCL and 10.6% for INTU
Past revenue growth metrics that form basis of our expectation
| ORCL | INTU | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent Quarter Growth | 6.4% | 15.1% |
| LTM Growth | 6.2% | 15.0% |
| 3Y Avg Growth (LTM) | 10.1% | 12.2% |
| Annual Growth Forecast | 7.3% | 10.6% |
ORCL Revenue Comparison | INTU Revenue Comparison
Recent Quarter Growth = Last quarter (yoy) growth | LTM = Last 12 months
Forecast methodology involves:
(a) Different weights to short-term (quarterly) vs long-term (LTM, 3Y Avg) growth (b) Removing exceptional growth periods from consideration
(c) Applying base effect to moderate future growth (d) Applying growth caps and floors based on company size
Which P/S Scenarios Make Sense
We forecast P/S of 11.0 for ORCL and 11.9 for INTU based on below plausible scenarios
P/S Scenarios & Corresponding 3-Year Returns (in brackets)
| ORCL | INTU | |
|---|---|---|
| Current | 12.5 (23.6%) | 12.4 (35.4%) |
| Expansion | 16.3 (60.7%) | 16.1 (76.0%) |
| Contraction | 8.8 (-13.5%) | 8.7 (-5.2%) |
| Average | 6.5 (-36.2%) | 10.5 (14.3%) |
| Scenario Average | 11.0 (8.6%) | 11.9 (30.1%) |
ORCL Valuation Ratios Comparison | INTU Valuation Ratios Comparison
Current = as of 7/30/2025 | Expansion/Contraction = Based on quarterly trend (+/-) | Average = Historical quarterly average
(a) Exceptional spikes excluded (b) Quarterly trend defined by quarterly average % change (c) Expansion/contraction capped at +30%/-30%
Are Current P/S Ratios Justified
A higher P/S is justified by higher margin, higher revenue growth, better margin expansion, and lower risk
| ORCL | INTU | |
|---|---|---|
| Current P/S | 12.5 | 12.4 |
| Current P/EBIT | 40.5 | 49.3 |
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| Last Q Sequential Growth | 0.5% | 95.7% |
| Last Q YoY Growth | 6.4% | 15.1% |
| LTM Growth | 6.2% | 15.0% |
| 3Y Average Growth | 10.1% | 12.2% |
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| LTM Op Margin | 31.8% | 25.8% |
| 3Y AVG Margin | 30.2% | 23.8% |
| LTM FCF Margin | 10.4% | 33.6% |
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| Debt to Equity | 24.6% | 4.1% |
| Cash to Assets | 11.0% | 16.9% |
The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming the S&P 500 over the last 4-year period. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.