Oracle’s Stock To Fall After A 3% Gain Last Week?

by Trefis Team
-10.14%
Downside
80.40
Market
72.25
Trefis
ORCL
Oracle
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Oracle’s stock (NYSE: ORCL) has risen by 2.7% over the last five trading days. In comparison, the broader S&P500 rose by 1% over the last five trading days. The company is expected to report Q3 FY 2021 (ended February 2021) earnings in the coming week. Now, is ORCL’s stock poised to grow? We believe that there is a 53% chance of a fall in ORCL’s stock over the next month (twenty-one trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last five years. See our analysis on Oracle’s Stock Chances Of Rise for more details.

5D: ORCL 2.7%, vs. S&P500 1%; Outperformed market

(16% likelihood event)

  • ORCL stock rose 2.7% over a five day trading period ending 3/01/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) rise of 1%
  • A change of 2.7% or more over five trading days is a 16% likelihood event, which has occurred 198 times out of 1256 in the last five years

 

10D: ORCL 4.9%, vs. S&P500 -0.5%; Outperformed market

(8% likelihood event)

  • ORCL stock rose 4.9% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to the broader market (S&P500) decline of 0.5%
  • A change of 4.9% or more over ten trading days is a 8% likelihood event, which has occurred 110 times out of 1240 in the last five years

21D: ORCL 8.1%, vs. S&P500 3.4%; Outperformed market

(3% likelihood event)

  • ORCL stock rose 8.1% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to the broader market (S&P500) rise of 3.4%
  • A change of 8.1% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 3% likelihood event, which has occurred 41 times out of 1198 in the last five years

While Oracle stock may have moved, 2020 has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how the stock valuation for Oracle vs. Humana shows a disconnect with their relative operational growth. You can find many such discontinuous pairs here.

See all Trefis Price Estimates and Download Trefis Data here

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