Aspen Technology’s stock (NASDAQ: AZPN), went down by 14.2% to $127 in the last five trading days post its FY 2021 (ended June 2021) results. In comparison, the broader S&P500 rose by 0.8% over the last five trading days. For Q4 2021 the company missed consensus estimates for revenue. Overall for FY 2021, the company reported revenue of $709 million, up 18% for the year while earnings were recorded at $4.71 compared to $3.38 in the previous year. Now, will the company continue the downward trajectory over the coming weeks, or is a rise in the stock imminent? According to the Trefis Machine Learning Engine, which identifies trends in a company’s stock price using multiple years of historical stock data, returns for AZPN‘s stock average around 6.7% in the next one-month (twenty-one trading days) period after falling 14.2% in a week (five trading days). But how would these numbers change if you are interested in holding AZPN stock for a shorter or a longer time period? You can test the answer and many other combinations on the Trefis Machine Learning Engine to test Aspen Technology stock chances of a rise after a fall. You can test the chance of recovery over different time intervals of a quarter, month, or even just one day!
MACHINE LEARNING ENGINE – try it yourself:
IF AZPN stock moved by -5% over 5 trading days, THEN over the next 21 trading days, AZPN stock moves an average of 3.2% with a 66.7% probability of a positive return over this period.
Some Fun Scenarios, FAQs & Making Sense of Aspen Technology Stock Movements
Question 1: Is the average return for Aspen Technology stock higher after a drop?
Case 1: Aspen Technology stock drops by -5% or more in a week
Case 2: Aspen Technology stock rises by 5% or more in a week
Is the average return for Aspen Technology stock higher over the subsequent month after Case 1 or Case 2?
AZPN stock fares better after Case 1, with an average return of 3.1% over the next month (21 trading days) under Case 1 (where the stock has just suffered a 5% loss over the previous week), versus, an average return of 0.8% for Case 2.
In comparison, the S&P 500 has an average return of 3.1% over the next 21 trading days under Case 1, and an average return of just 0.5% for Case 2 as detailed in our dashboard that details the average return for the S&P 500 after a fall or rise.
Try the Trefis machine learning engine above to see for yourself how Aspen Technology stock is likely to behave after any specific gain or loss over a period.
Question 2: Does patience pay?
If you buy and hold Aspen Technology stock, the expectation is over time the near-term fluctuations will cancel out, and the long-term positive trend will favor you – at least if the company is otherwise strong.
Overall, according to data and Trefis machine learning engine’s calculations, patience absolutely pays for most stocks!
For AZPN stock, the returns over the next N days after a -5% change over the last five trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:
You can try the engine to see what this table looks like for Aspen Technology after a larger loss over the last week, month, or quarter.
Question 3: What about the average return after a rise if you wait for a while?
The average return after a rise is understandably lower than after a fall as detailed in the previous question. Interestingly, though, if a stock has gained over the last few days, you would do better to avoid short-term bets for most stocks.
AZPN’s returns over the next N days after a 5% change over the last five trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:
It’s pretty powerful to test the trend for yourself for Aspen Technology stock by changing the inputs in the charts above.
What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market since 2016.