NVIDIA Stock To $133?

Our multi-factor assessment suggests that it may be time to sell NVDA stock. We have, overall, a pessimistic view of the stock, and a price of $133 may not be out of reach. We believe there is nothing to fear in NVDA stock given its overall Very Strong operating performance and financial condition. Hence, together with its Very High valuation, this makes the stock look Risky.

Below is our assessment:

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Let’s get into details of each of the assessed factors but before that, for quick background: With $4.5 Tril in market cap, NVIDIA provides graphics, compute, and networking solutions for gaming, visualization, datacenter, and automotive markets globally, with a strategic collaboration with Kroger Co.

[1] Valuation Looks Very High

This table highlights how NVDA is valued vs broader market. For more details see: NVDA Valuation Ratios

[2] Growth Is Very Strong

• NVIDIA has seen its top line grow at an average rate of 91.6% over the last 3 years
• Its revenues have grown 65% from $113 Bil to $187 Bil in the last 12 months
• Also, its quarterly revenues grew 62.5% to $57 Bil in the most recent quarter from $35 Bil a year ago.

This table highlights how NVDA is growing vs broader market. For more details see: NVDA Revenue Comparison

[3] Profitability Appears Very Strong

• NVDA last 12 month operating income was $110 Bil representing operating margin of 58.8%
• With cash flow margin of 44.4%, it generated nearly $83 Bil in operating cash flow over this period
• For the same period, NVDA generated nearly $99 Bil in net income, suggesting net margin of about 53.0%

This table highlights how NVDA profitability vs broader market. For more details see: NVDA Operating Income Comparison

[4] Financial Stability Looks N/A

[5] Downturn Resilience Is Moderate

NVDA saw an impact slightly worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns. We assess this based on both (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered.

2022 Inflation Shock

• NVDA stock fell 66.4% from a high of $33.38 on 29 November 2021 to $11.23 on 14 October 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 25 May 2023
• Since then, the stock increased to a high of $207.04 on 29 October 2025 , and currently trades at $185.55

 
2020 Covid Pandemic

• NVDA stock fell 37.6% from a high of $7.87 on 19 February 2020 to $4.91 on 16 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 11 May 2020

 
2008 Global Financial Crisis

• NVDA stock fell 85.1% from a high of $0.99 on 17 October 2007 to $0.15 on 20 November 2008 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 13 May 2016

But the risk is not limited to major market crashes. Stocks fall even when markets are good – think events like earnings, business updates, outlook changes. Read NVDA Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.

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