Catalysts That Could Propel NVIDIA Stock to the Moon

NVDA has experienced multiple explosive rallies historically. The stock surged over 50% within two months on 11 occasions, notably in 2016 and 2024, and climbed more than 30% in similar periods 15 times, including key years like 2017 and 2024. If past trends hold, upcoming catalysts could again drive NVIDIA shares sharply higher, offering substantial gains to investors.

NVIDIA’s stock has surged, propelled to a $5 trillion valuation by insatiable demand for its cutting-edge AI accelerators, with “Blackwell sales off the charts” and cloud GPUs fully committed. While recent market jitters hint at an AI valuation debate, the enduring ecosystem built around its data center prowess, coupled with relentless innovation spanning physical AI to autonomous vehicles, continues to position the chip giant for compelling future upside.

Triggers That Could Boost The Stock

• Rubin Dominance: Launch of NVIDIA’s Rubin architecture in H2 2026, projected to offer 3.3x performance improvement over Blackwell, could further solidify data center leadership, driving significant revenue growth beyond the $500 billion orders already booked through 2026.
• Automotive Expansion: Accelerated adoption of NVIDIA’s DRIVE platform in autonomous vehicles and robotics, aiming for $5 billion automotive revenue by FY26, could unlock substantial new markets. CEO Huang envisions one billion robotic cars, pointing to massive untapped growth potential.
• Software Monetization: Expanding NVIDIA AI Enterprise and developing new high-margin AI software and services could create significant recurring revenue streams. This strengthens the CUDA ecosystem and could lead to higher valuation multiples for software-derived income.

How Strong Are Financials Right Now

Below is a quick comparison of NVDA fundamentals with S&P medians.

• Revenue Growth: 71.6% LTM and 92.0% last 3-year average.
• Cash Generation: Nearly 43.6% free cash flow margin and 58.1% operating margin LTM.
• Valuation: NVIDIA stock trades at a P/E multiple of 51.4

*LTM: Last Twelve Months | If you want more details, read Buy or Sell NVDA Stock.

NVIDIA’s fundamentals are notably strong, highlighted by exceptional revenue growth rates exceeding 70% over the last twelve months and robust cash generation with free cash flow and operating margins well above industry standards. However, despite these impressive operational metrics, it is important to consider the potential investment risks ahead, particularly how the stock might behave during market downturns.

Risk Quantified

Looking at NVIDIA’s history during market downturns shows there’s still plenty of risk despite its strengths. The stock fell about 85% in the Global Financial Crisis and 68% in the Dot-Com crash. The 2018 sell-off and inflation shock each saw declines north of 55%, with the latter around 66%. Even the Covid dip, which was relatively brief, pulled the stock down nearly 38%. Solid fundamentals matter, but when the market turns, NVDA isn’t immune to sharp drops.

But the risk is not limited to major market crashes. Stocks fall even when markets are good – think events like earnings, business updates, and outlook changes. Read NVDA Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.

Still not convinced about NVDA stock? Consider portfolio approach.

A Multi Asset Portfolio Gives You Safer Smarter Growth

Stocks can jump or crash but different assets move on different cycles. A multi asset portfolio helps you stay invested while cushioning swings in equities.

The asset allocation framework of Trefis’ Boston-based, wealth management partner yielded positive returns during the 2008-09 period when the S&P lost more than 40%. Our partner’ strategy now includes Trefis High Quality Portfolio, which has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices