How Will Nordson Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Nordson (NASDAQ:NDSN) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, December 10, 2025. The company has $13 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $2.8 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $689 Mil in operating profits and net income of $455 Mil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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Nordson’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 17 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 12 positive and 5 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 71% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 82% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 12 positive returns = 2.8%, and median of the 5 negative returns = -7.5%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/20/2025 | 3.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% |
| 5/28/2025 | 6.8% | 8.9% | 10.3% |
| 2/19/2025 | 0.3% | -3.1% | -5.2% |
| 12/11/2024 | -8.2% | -14.7% | -16.6% |
| 8/21/2024 | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.5% |
| 5/20/2024 | -9.4% | -13.0% | -13.6% |
| 2/21/2024 | 4.5% | 2.0% | 3.2% |
| 12/13/2023 | 3.9% | 6.2% | 4.4% |
| 8/21/2023 | 2.2% | 5.1% | -1.3% |
| 5/22/2023 | 1.5% | 2.1% | 9.4% |
| 12/14/2022 | 2.5% | 1.2% | 2.9% |
| 8/22/2022 | 2.5% | -0.7% | -6.2% |
| 5/23/2022 | 2.4% | 5.8% | -3.3% |
| 12/15/2021 | -7.5% | -7.0% | -11.2% |
| 8/30/2021 | -0.1% | 1.9% | 1.7% |
| 5/24/2021 | 7.1% | 9.5% | 7.6% |
| 12/15/2020 | -3.9% | -1.4% | -4.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 11 | 9 |
| # Negative | 5 | 6 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 2.8% | 5.1% | 4.4% |
| Median Negative | -7.5% | -5.0% | -5.7% |
| Max Positive | 7.1% | 9.5% | 10.3% |
| Max Negative | -9.4% | -14.7% | -16.6% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 44.0% | 48.4% | 3.0% |
| 3Y History | 76.1% | 58.6% | 0.2% |
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