Can Norwegian Cruise Line Stock Recover If Markets Fall?
Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) stock is down 7.6% in 5 trading days. The recent slide reflects renewed concerns around moderating growth, high debt, and customer loyalty shifts, but sharp drops like this often raise a tougher question: is the weakness temporary, or a sign of deeper cracks in the story?
Before judging its downturn reslience, let’s look at where Norwegian Cruise Line stands today.
- Size: Norwegian Cruise Line is a $10 Bil company with $9.7 Bil in revenue currently trading at $22.43.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of 3.6% and operating margin of 16.4%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 1.44 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.01
- Valuation: Norwegian Cruise Line stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of 15.2 and P/EBIT multiple of 6.8
- Has returned (median) -19.1% within a year following sharp dips since 2010. See NCLH Dip Buy Analysis.
These metrics point to a Weak operational performance, alongside Moderate valuation – making the stock Risky. For details, see Buy or Sell NCLH Stock
That brings us to the key consideration for investors worried about this fall: how resilient is NCLH stock if markets turn south? This is where our downturn resilience framework comes in. Suppose NCLH stock falls another 20-30% to $16 – can investors comfortably hold on? Turns out, the stock has fared much worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns, based on (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered. Below, we dive deeper into each such downturn.
2022 Inflation Shock
- NCLH stock fell 69.2% from a high of $33.71 on 8 June 2021 to $10.38 on 16 June 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
- The highest the stock has reached since then is $29.07 on 30 January 2025 , and currently trades at $22.43
| NCLH | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -69.2% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | Not Fully Recovered | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- NCLH stock fell 87.0% from a high of $59.65 on 17 January 2020 to $7.77 on 18 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
| NCLH | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -87.0% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | Not Fully Recovered | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- NCLH stock fell 35.1% from a high of $60.93 on 26 January 2018 to $39.55 on 24 December 2018 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
| NCLH | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -35.1% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | Not Fully Recovered | 120 days |
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