FTAI Aviation Stock To $138?

FTAI Aviation (FTAI) stock has jumped 14% during the past day, and is currently trading at $197.68. Our multi-factor assessment suggests that it may be time to reduce exposure to FTAI stock. We are primarily concerned current valuation and a price of $138 may not be out of reach. We believe there is not much to fear in FTAI stock given its overall Strong operating performance and financial condition. But given its Very High valuation, the stock appears Relatively Expensive.

Below is our assessment:

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Let’s get into details of each of the assessed factors but before that, for quick background: With $20 Bil in market cap, FTAI Aviation provides ownership and acquisition of infrastructure and equipment for global transportation of goods and people since 2011.

[1] Valuation Looks Very High

This table highlights how FTAI is valued vs broader market. For more details see: FTAI Valuation Ratios

[2] Growth Is Very Strong

• FTAI Aviation has seen its top line grow at an average rate of 66.9% over the last 3 years
• Its revenues have grown 51% from $1.5 Bil to $2.3 Bil in the last 12 months
• Also, its quarterly revenues grew 43.2% to $667 Mil in the most recent quarter from $466 Mil a year ago.

This table highlights how FTAI is growing vs broader market. For more details see: FTAI Revenue Comparison

[3] Profitability Appears Moderate

• FTAI last 12 month operating income was $729 Mil representing operating margin of 31.1%
• With cash flow margin of -7.4%, it generated nearly $-173 Mil in operating cash flow over this period
• For the same period, FTAI generated nearly $488 Mil in net income, suggesting net margin of about 20.8%

This table highlights how FTAI profitability vs broader market. For more details see: FTAI Operating Income Comparison

[4] Financial Stability Looks Very Strong

• FTAI Debt was $3.4 Bil at the end of the most recent quarter, while its current Market Cap is $20 Bil. This implies Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 17.0%
• FTAI Cash (including cash equivalents) makes up $510 Mil of $4.2 Bil in total Assets. This yields a Cash-to-Assets Ratio of 12.0%

[5] Downturn Resilience Is Weak

FTAI has fared worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns. We assess this based on both (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered.

2022 Inflation Shock

• FTAI stock fell 50.8% from a high of $29.06 on 22 June 2021 to $14.30 on 13 June 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 18 May 2023
• Since then, the stock increased to a high of $197.68 on 30 December 2025 $197.68

 
2020 Covid Pandemic

• FTAI stock fell 73.5% from a high of $17.99 on 19 February 2020 to $4.77 on 18 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 1 December 2020

But the risk is not limited to major market crashes. Stocks fall even when markets are good – think events like earnings, business updates, outlook changes. Read FTAI Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.

The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.