With Moderna Stock Sliding, Have You Assessed The Risk?
Moderna (MRNA) stock is down 12.9% in 5 trading days. The recent slide reflects renewed concerns around weak vaccine demand and the challenging transition to a multi-product pipeline, but sharp drops like this often raise a tougher question: is the weakness temporary, or a sign of deeper cracks in the story?
Before judging its downturn reslience, let’s look at where Moderna stands today.
- Size: Moderna is a $12 Bil company with $2.2 Bil in revenue currently trading at $30.41.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of -56.4% and operating margin of -157.3%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.06 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.37
- Valuation: Moderna stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of -3.8 and P/EBIT multiple of -3.8
- Has returned (median) -19.1% within a year following sharp dips since 2010. See MRNA Dip Buy Analysis.
These metrics point to a Weak operational performance, alongside High valuation – making the stock Unattractive. For details, see Buy or Sell MRNA Stock
That brings us to the key consideration for investors worried about this fall: how resilient is MRNA stock if markets turn south? This is where our downturn resilience framework comes in. Suppose MRNA stock falls another 20-30% to $21 – can investors comfortably hold on? Turns out, the stock has fared worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns, based on (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered. Below, we dive deeper into each such downturn.
2022 Inflation Shock
- MRNA stock fell 85.7% from a high of $484.47 on 9 August 2021 to $69.51 on 9 November 2023 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
- The highest the stock has reached since then is $166.61 on 27 May 2024 , and currently trades at $30.41
| MRNA | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -85.7% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | Not Fully Recovered | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- MRNA stock fell 42.7% from a high of $94.85 on 17 July 2020 to $54.34 on 8 September 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 16 November 2020
| MRNA | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -42.7% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 69 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- MRNA stock fell 56.7% from a high of $28.34 on 2 May 2019 to $12.26 on 5 August 2019 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 26 February 2020
| MRNA | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -56.7% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 205 days | 120 days |
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