With Moderna Stock Sliding, Have You Assessed The Risk?
Moderna (MRNA) stock is down 12.9% in 5 trading days. The recent slide reflects renewed concerns around weak vaccine demand and the challenging transition to a multi-product pipeline, but sharp drops like this often raise a tougher question: is the weakness temporary, or a sign of deeper cracks in the story?
Before judging its downturn reslience, let’s look at where Moderna stands today.
- Size: Moderna is a $12 Bil company with $2.2 Bil in revenue currently trading at $30.41.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of -56.4% and operating margin of -157.3%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.06 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.37
- Valuation: Moderna stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of -3.8 and P/EBIT multiple of -3.8
- Has returned (median) -19.1% within a year following sharp dips since 2010. See MRNA Dip Buy Analysis.
These metrics point to a Weak operational performance, alongside High valuation – making the stock Unattractive. For details, see Buy or Sell MRNA Stock
That brings us to the key consideration for investors worried about this fall: how resilient is MRNA stock if markets turn south? This is where our downturn resilience framework comes in. Suppose MRNA stock falls another 20-30% to $21 – can investors comfortably hold on? Turns out, the stock has fared worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns, based on (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered. Below, we dive deeper into each such downturn.
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2022 Inflation Shock
- MRNA stock fell 85.7% from a high of $484.47 on 9 August 2021 to $69.51 on 9 November 2023 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
- The highest the stock has reached since then is $166.61 on 27 May 2024 , and currently trades at $30.41
| MRNA | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -85.7% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | Not Fully Recovered | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- MRNA stock fell 42.7% from a high of $94.85 on 17 July 2020 to $54.34 on 8 September 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 16 November 2020
| MRNA | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -42.7% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 69 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- MRNA stock fell 56.7% from a high of $28.34 on 2 May 2019 to $12.26 on 5 August 2019 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 26 February 2020
| MRNA | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -56.7% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 205 days | 120 days |
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